Update 1: "Official" 2002 Wireless Technology Scorecard ...
... updated using historical and current tallies from CDG for CDMA and EMC for GSM and all other technologies and noting some positive trends for CDMA.
A correction (already) here to my previous post (detail at end of post) ....
• 74.9% of new sub net adds in 2002 were GSM
• 16.6% of new sub net adds in 2002 were CDMA
• 06.8% of new sub net adds in 2002 were TDMA
• 01.6% of new sub net adds in 2002 were PDC
• A Key Ratio: GSM subs to CDMA subs = 5.4:1 (now declining slightly)
• In the last 2.5 years GSM wireless market share has increased 23% (13.1 percentage points).
• In the last 2.5 years CDMA market share has increased 8.4% (one percentage point).
However:
• At 31.8% YOY Growth CDMA grew faster than GSM (25.5%) in 2002.
• At 35.1% CAGR Growth CDMA grew faster than GSM (31.5%) in the last 24 months.
• In 2002 for every CDMA sub added 4.5 GSM subs were added (favorable to CDMA).
• Overall Subscriber Growth has slowed and continues to slow both in actual and percentage terms.
• Net CDMA Subscriber Adds actually increased in 2002 after 2 years of flat growth.
• Net GSM Subscriber Adds decreased in 2001 and again in 2002.
• In 1997 through 1999 CDMA was the fastest growing wireless technology. Growth stalled early in 2000. By end of year 2000 TDMA was the fastest growing technology YOY and by mid-year 2001 GSM outpaced both TDMA and CDMA as the fastest growing technology YOY. That trend has reversed, and that's a positive.
Wireless Subscribers (millions) by Technology at End of 2002
·
Subs Market Share
% All % Digital
GSM 787.5 69.5% 71.3%
CDMA 146.7 12.9% 13.3%
TDMA 109.2 9.6% 9.9%
PDC 60.1 5.3% 5.4%
W-CDMA 0.15 .1% .1%
------------------------------------------------
Total Digital 1103.8 97.3% 100.0%
Total Analogue 30.0 2.7% N/A
Total Wireless 1133.8 100.0% N/A
·
12 Month Subscriber Growth Rates
Net YOY
Dec 01 Dec 02 Adds Growth
·
Total GSM Subscribers 627.7m 787.5m 159.8m 25.5%
Total CDMA Subscribers 111.3m 146.7m 35.4m 31.8%
Total TDMA Subscribers 94.7m 109.2m 14.5m 15.3%
Total PDC Subscribers 56.8m 60.1m 3.3m 5.8%
Total Anal Subscribers 45.3m 30.0m (15.3m) (16.0%)
Total Wireless Subscribers 935.8m 1133.8m 198.0m 18.8%
swing = 213.3m (+analog)
·
24 Month Subscriber Growth Rates
Net
Dec 00 Dec 02 Adds CAGR
·
Total GSM Subscribers 455.1m 787.5m 332.4m 31.54%
Total CDMA Subscribers 80.4m 146.7m 66.3m 35.08%
Total TDMA Subscribers 65.2m 109.2m 44.0m 29.42%
Total Wireless Subscribers 719.5m 1133.8m 412.5m 25.53%
·
30 Month Relative Market Share of CDMA & GSM
·
QCDMA Market Share GSM Market Share
·
% of all % of digital % of all % of digital
·
Q4 2002 End 12.9% 13.3% 69.7% 71.6%
Q2 2002 End 12.3% 12.7% 68.6% 71.0%
Q4 2001 End 11.7% 12.3% 65.7% 69.0%
Q2 2001 End 11.6% 12.4% 64.8% 69.4%
Q4 2000 End 11.2% 12.5% 63.3% 69.7%
Q2 2000 End 11.9% 13.9% 56.6% 66.1%
As I noted in an earlier post elsewhere, before CDG published Q4 subscriber numbers, "Official numbers will be calculated when CDG publishes Q4 2003 figures." The numbers above have now been recalculated by merging EMC's and CDG's "official" numbers.
Last year and in Q4 in particular there was a wider than normal discrepancy between "unofficial" CDMA subs reported by EMC at year end (142.7 million) and CDG's later official numbers of 146.7m. AS a matter of fact, EMC generally in the past showed marginally higher CDMA subs than CDG who reports significantly later generally showed.
It will be interesting to see if EMC's numbers jive somewhat closer with CDGs at end of Q2 due to either's further scrubbing. It looks to me like EMC has already made an adjustment to their numbers by comparing notes with CDG sourceing, but its too early to tell. EMC is showing 8.6 million CDMA net sub adds (3.57% CAGR) for the first 2 months of 2003 which looks a tad high to me, although conversely only 4.6 million net sub adds using their February number off CDG's 2002 ending base of 146.7 million looks equally low to me.
TDMA growth is slowing rapidly (finally) and TDMA growth could go negative this year as TDMA subs convert to GSM. While growth is and has been slow, PDC keeps adding net subs, despite the fact that KDDI has been converting their subs to CDMA successfully and their PDC growth is negative each month. Analog keeps dropping nicely.
EMC's numbers for subscribers at February end are as follows:
Subs Market Share
% All % Digital
GSM 821.3 70.2% 71.8%
CDMA 151.3 12.9% 13.2%
TDMA 110.3 9.4% 9.6%
PDC 60.5 5.2% 5.3%
W-CDMA 0.201 .1% .1%
------------------------------------------------
Total Digital 1143.8 97.8% 100.0%
Total Analogue 26.1 2.2% N/A
Total Wireless 1170.0 100.0% N/A
Disclaimer: Raw numbers are EMC's for GSMA and CDG's. Calculations are mine. It is possible that I have made transposition errors or typo's and I may have miscalculated somewhere along the way or failed to update an older calculation. Best to note that the pros do this as well. <g>
The Correction:
I previously correctly stated:
• 74.9% of new sub net adds in 2002 were GSM
• 16.6% of new sub net adds in 2002 were CDMA
• 06.8% of new sub net adds in 2002 were TDMA
I neglected to clip out, and have now clipped out this conflicting statement ...
• In 2002 83% of new net sub adds were GSM.
... and a redundancy:
• In 2002 16.6% of new net sub adds were CDMA.
I had meant to replace (have replaced) the redundancy with the statement:
Note that the second statement for GSM was made by calculating percentage of net adds based on actual net adds of 198.0m in which case total GSM+CDMA+TDMA+PDC subs exceeds 100%.
The first set of statements is based on what I refered to as the "swing" of 213.3m in table 2, which adds analog conversions back into the base net add number. It is a more accurate calculation and when made GSM+CDMA+TDMA+PDC subs equals 100%.
Best to all,
- Eric - |
