David, people adapt really quickly. In 100 years, Auckland has changed hugely. If the tide had been rising or other major climatic events happening, people would have adapted without economic damage.
When they think, "Where shall I invest $100 million to build a building, establish a business and generally make a commitment?" they are thinking in terms of 20 years, not a century. With some industries, such as tree growing, they think in terms of 50 years.
If the tide is rising, they'll decide to build their stuff enough metres above sea level to avoid gradual rises, and if they are wise, the much more important sudden tsunamis which are caused by incoming space objects.
Those tsunamis are likely anytime from now onwards, with equal probability. The tide rises from greenhouse effects are totally trivial compared with the risk from such tsunamis.
A warning that we all have to move uphill over the next 50 years wouldn't make a huge difference to property prices in downtown Auckland. Those right on the water's edge would perhaps drop slightly for a few years. New buildings would be built uphill. Rents in low level buildings would rise as people prefer to stay where they are. So the price of the buildings wouldn't drop dramatically. People might even build new ones in the planned wet-zone, to make a profit over the next 30 years before flooding gets under way.
The theoretical climatic changes are so trivial, I'm surprised anyone worries, even if they are true. Worrying about tsunamis is more realistic. Tunguska type comets psi.edu over water would make quite a wave.
Mqurice |
