Hi, Jorj,
May not be here long; could be headed for Red Rocks or Yosemite for a week (partner's girlfriend out of town.) Also trying to get to Smith Rock in Oregon before it gets too hot. Utah was awesome, and I'll get a picture or two up soon.
My impression is that you think this rally is about done, and I tend to agree, so I'm not interested in much long right now. I think there are better shorts than MLNM: early solid tumor data looks promising; they may have something to spring at ASCO and I think it would be best to wait and see what that brings. Not sure what to make of AMGN, but BGEN looks ripe. Recent earnings surprise seems to be driving the stock, but the upside appears to have come from cost containment. Meanwhile Avonex sales are suffering from competition from Serono's Rebif, and Amevive is launching slowly. Insiders are be selling a bit (saw a fairly large form 4 sale from a couple of days ago). Trial results for Crohn's disease would be the next event but are probably over a month away from being released.
If you think BTK is hitting resistance, you could short it. Or try AMGN, since it represents a large chunk of it, and looked wobbly at the end of the day. CHIR's munch of PowderJect was quite well received, which surprised me. Over $41, it runs into old resistance. Not as volatile as the others. IDBE appears to have run up to resistance on, well, not sure, vague relation to SARS? AGEN is up against resistance, too, I believe. I think BGEN is the most compelling short term, perhaps good for several points or 15% in a few days.
Cheers, Tuck |
