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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: Eric L who wrote (53912)	4/29/2003 1:12:38 PM
From: Jim Mullens	Read Replies (1) of 54805

Eric, 3G Infra/ Ed Thanks for the DB report on 3G infra which as you correctly pointed out reflects less than 10% of the $58B planned for WCDMA infra being spent thru mid 2003. I stand corrected. That being the case, why is the perception that “3G” is significantly late to market and plagued with numerous and unexpected technical problems the prominent story being told by the media? When, in reality, not much if any of WCDMA was apparently to be deployed by this date in any event. CDMA2000 has been in commercial operation for over two years and is growing by leaps and bounds and with even Ev-Do networks being operational in Korea and being installed in Japan and elsewhere. Was it that the WCDMA folks were caught between a “rock and a hard spot” in that they did not want the public to know that WCDMA was to be several years (3+) behind the technology curve vs CDMA2000, yet on the other hand they knew that the networks would not be ready for prime time in 2002 as promised? Thus, they chose to deceive the public by promising that WCDMA would be operational soon after CDMA2000 rather than telling the truth at the risk of loosing contracts to the CDMA2000 folks? Again, Dr J was “right on” when he stated in Cannes two years ago that WCDMA would not be commercially viable until 2004/2005 and very much chastised by everyone for speaking the truth. Apparently the GSM/WCDMA folks also knew the truth at that time but failed to speak it and even chastised Dr I J for doing so. Regarding Ed Snyder and his” Hambrecht & Quist days having a buy rating on QCOM after the ERICY accord….”. I pulled this from Yahoo reflecting the “analyst” recommendations for QCOM for the various name changes Ed Snyder’s company went thru over the past several years. Hambrecht & Quist ……..20 Jan 99 downgrade from buy to hold Chase H&Q…………….. 25 Jul 00 upgrade from Market Perform to Buy JPMorgan ………………11 Oct 01 upgrade from LT Buy to Buy jim

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