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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK)

NOK 6.480

-0.2%

Jan 9 9:30 AM EST

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To: waitwatchwander who wrote (24886)	4/29/2003 7:21:29 PM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (2) of 34857

Maybe, all the recent market activity in wireless stocks is more a reflection on the comings and goings of short sellers? That might explain the inconsistencies of the rallies and the declines. It's all a matter of expectations.... At the beginning of March, I believed the following (entirely reasonable) scenarios were playing out for Qualcomm. - China Unicom's dropping of subsidies hadnt had as big an impact as I had feared in January. The normal pattern after subsidies are dropped is that the largest drop in sales is during the first month with subsequent months usually showing sequential growth. This combined with the launch of pre-paid and 1x would keep Unicom on track for their full-year subscriber growth target. Unfortunately this didnt happen, February was worse than January and March was about flat with February. - Korea was going to reinstitute some form of subsidies at the beginning of April. Unfortunately, this didnt happen. The new Korean PM decided that he wanted to keep the subsidy ban and it looks like the matter is being debated. Either way, the reintroduction of some form of subsidies has been delayed. - Reliance had signed up 2.2 million subscribers in the first two weeks of their service. The rumoured numbers out of Reliance turned out to be false and the possibility of 3 million subscribers for an end of March launch turned out to be a chimera. Now we are just hoping that the service isnt delayed until August. Expectations have been scaled back since the beginning of March....it shouldnt be that big a surprise that we are down. All of the above are basically Qualcomm specific problems and dont have much of an impact on Nokia or Ericsson. Slacker

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