SARS Deaths by gender and age in Toronto at 26 April. Of 138 cases, 20 deaths = 14%.
Even if probable cases of 131 are included, that makes 7% mortality with 42 probables and 42 suspects still hospitalized.
Assuming 7 of them die, that would make 27 deaths from 138 probable cases and 131 suspect cases. Including all the probable and suspect cases, that's 10%.
If just the probable cases are included, that's 20%. For those over 60 years old, it's lethal!
ogov.newswire.ca
Gender Age Date of Death
------ --- -------------
Female 78 Mar. 5
Male 43 Mar. 13
Male 76 Mar. 21
Male 77 Mar. 29
Female 78 Mar. 31
Male 74 Apr. 1
Male 82 Apr. 1 (reported approximately Apr. 5)
Female 57 Apr. 2
Male 62 Apr. 5
Female 75 Apr. 6
Female 80 April 12
Female 86 April 12
Female 73 April 12
Female 99 April 17
Male 63 April 22
Female 78 April 23
Male 44 April 24
Female 69 April 25
Female 64 April 25
Male 77 April 26
So much for my theory. Only 9 males, average age = 66. 11 females, average age = 76. Oh, that puts my theory back in business. Women have to be really old to die. Blokes die a decade younger. Also, there are maybe twice as many women alive after age 75 as males [in Toronto], so many more old women than men are around to be infected.
Adjusted for the number of old women in the population, I'd say, as usual, males do the dying younger [due to their own health decisions such as smoking and eating bad food].
The two young males at 43 and 44 skew the numbers lower for the males [only a sample of 9, so disproportionately perhaps]. One old lady at 99 is less of a skew of a sample of 11.
The elderly population will be dramatically reduced if this disease spreads.
That will halve the need for the medical industry because old people need much of the medical attention in a community. It will also halve the old age pension budgets needed by governments. It will cut the population by 7%, reducing housing demand. It will hand on estates to younger people who will spend the money on stuff they need [or want]. That'll give an economic turbo boost.
Chinese don't vote, but in the west, it would shift voting patterns to younger people's interests.
Maybe China will succeed in stopping the disease and we'll be back to 'normal'.
Old smokers, stop now if you want to live! Tune up your lungs. Young ones, stop smoking, avoid the ventilator and wear the "I Survived Sars" tee shirt with pride.
Thinking out loud,
Mqurice |
