Maurice, race does play a part here. Generally speaking, Asians (Mongols - Estern and Southeastern Asians) are very vulnerable for lung disease. A lot of them have healed calcium spot on their lungs (means had been infected by pneumonia without knowledge). While Anglo-Saxons are very vulnerable for flu. In China few people actually dead of flu every year even though they named all those flu with Chinese cities names<g>
Although smoking might be a factor too. Much higher % of Chinese smokes. Although some heavy smokers (Like Deng Xiaoping) could live a very long life<g>. It all depends on individual personalities.
>>Traditional remedies are a load of rubbish without scientific foundation <<
hehe, for you only<g>. I cannot survive without Chinese herbal medicines, not to mention living healthyly. And one reason for the difference bet. Guangdong SARS death rate and HK SARS death rate is that Guangdong uses extensive herbal remedies to enhance patients immune system, while majority of HK doctors are only trained by Western medicine.
As for that you do not trust the number from mainland, I can only say it is a shame. I think the current daily reported number is pretty accurate.
And BTW, the recovery rate in Guangdong is already 85%.
I agree mortality will be >4% eventually in some places, but will be lower than 10%. I would say maybe 7% or so is a safe bet. But in Guangdong itself, the death rate will not be much higher than 4%.
>>Have you seen any data on gender, smoking, asthmatics etc?<<
Nope, have not seen those data. But I do remember majority of those elders in HK had chronical conditions. And 19 out 21 Canadians died of SARS has serious chronical conditions. |
