In a bull market, we saw the monthly crossovers in 96, 97, 98, above 0, they reversed again and the markets continued higher.
In a bear market, we've had our first crossover, but below 0, I believe it will reverse down again, as the markets continue lower. It may reach 1600-1650 (blue line), but will turn lower.
Note: there was no crossover to the downside from late98 to mid00. once it crossed to the downside, there was no crossover until last October.
Just my opinion, but in the longer term, we still have a lot of excess in the market. In the short term, tech is strongest, so it could continue to outperform, though it seems priciest. |
