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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 301.15

-1.2%

Dec 31 4:00 PM EST

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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (9643)	4/30/2003 11:49:53 AM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) of 95657

I'll add to Cary's bullishness on PLDs vs ASICs. A couple of years ago friends at Juniper and Cisco said ASICS made sense for their higher volume products but often a PLD was cheaper due to time to market allowed them to gather more sales before the ASIC could be ready, tested, tweaked and released. PLDs just need a software change. This technology has the POTENTIAL to be "disruptive" at 90nm in that ASIC vendors could go out of business do to the above mentioned reasons. I'm starting to believe I should make a small buy now using funds in stocks I have too much of already and could use a 20% diversification... The trouble is that often means selling something that is at a good valuation for stocks that have much of this anticipated future priced in but... I think if the market is really $20B and it turns out PLDs are disruptive, then it makes sense for me to buy some now, period. It takes quite a bit for me to book profits in a company to switch to one of lower baseline valuation.. but these might be worth it. The scary part is the market could have one last test of the lows and I'd get many more shares in a swap if I wait... so manybe I should take Cary's idea and diversify from AMAT/LRCX/UTEK type stocks which would have a similar correction?

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