Canadian Market Direction Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Canadian Market Direction

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To: Jan Johnstone who wrote (34)	8/2/1997 2:36:00 AM
From: andy	of 35

Is Canada the current favour for the international scene with the instability in Asia currency? I've held Suncor for some time and to see it jump by 20% in a day is absolutely terrifying. I know the interlisted status may have something to do with it ... but is cash flowing in from around the world because 1) everything is working, 2) the perception is there for a currency rise relative to the world or 3) structurally the central banks are preparing for deflation and Canada has less asset evaporation to endure than comparable economies? It almost looks like there is some decoupling between the US and Canada ... it appears to be very short term (looks like days) ... that pattern you noticed appeared twice last week. Looking at the market, it 'feels' strong ... just looking at the variety of companies hitting new highs against the lows. Do you think that people are becoming desensitized to 60-100 point moves? On another question, how much investment decision making does the average Canadian make using US, European, Asian or global thinking? I feel that the US market and business is almost becoming a puppet show of expectation ... maybe it's because I'm in Asia. Certainly the US dollar and economy is still the pit bull of the world ... (Canada's starting to act like Cherry's Blue) I think it's selective shorting at best ... but I think (IMO!) anticipating the next systemic oil price rise is the key. If oil rises it will push up inflation on both producer price side and wage side particularly in the US which will have a consequent spill over effect north of the border on the industrial production side. This should boost Canada compared with state in terms of economy but for how long ... a quarter? Looking forward, is the next contraction (I still believe in the business cycle) big, medium or small? Any comments?

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