Still losing ground, with expanding numbers, albeit confined to China and Hong Kong [more or less] who.int
x = 10 deaths.
Cumulative deaths
26 Feb ?
..5 Mar x
12 Mar x
19 Mar x
26 Mar xx
...2 Apr xxxxx
...9 Apr xxxxxxxxxx
.16 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
.23 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
.30 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [actual 372]
Deaths for the week.
x = 10 deaths.
z = early days, fewer than 10 per week.
26 Feb z
..5 Mar z
12 Mar z
19 Mar z
26 Mar x
...2 Apr xxx
...9 Apr xxxxx
.16 Apr xxxxxx
.23 Apr xxxxxxxxx
.30 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxx [120]
..1 May eeeeeeeeeeeee [e = my estimate, total = 130]
China and Hong Kong continue to be neck and neck, literally, for sars deaths at 159 for China and 157 for Hong Kong. They've been equal for weeks now. But China says they have twice as many cases and twice as many recoveries, which suggests errors in diagnosis.
China losing ground, others seem to be under control.
New Zealand's case still not reported, so I suppose other countries are also not being reported correctly for some reason.
With 5,600 cumulative cases [of varying definitions] and a death rate of maybe 10%, [on previous cases though maybe lower since China has a high recovery rate of suspected sars], that's about 600 or another 230 to die of existing cases. Then there will be more cases over the next couple of weeks.
Of the 230, I suppose about 130 will die over the next week [the crisis seems to be about 11 days into the disease by which time the immune system starts to make gains or the person starts losing the fight].
Mqurice |
