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Strategies & Market Trends : Heinz Blasnik- Views You Can Use

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To: GraceZ who wrote (566)4/30/2003 7:55:31 PM
From: LLCF  Read Replies (1) of 4912
 
<Here's the article on which my complaints were based. I find most of it to show faulty logic and his "solutions" to be particularly offensive.>

Well, here's the number one point:

<<Answer: It is the imbalances in the international trade system rather than the system itself that poses the danger. The United States’ Current Account deficit is now $60 million AN HOUR! It increased 28% in 2002 to half a trillion dollars, an amount roughly equivalent to 5% of US GDP. This unprecedented trade imbalance has created extraordinary disequilibrium in the global economy. The countries that build up large stockpiles of international reserves due to large current account or financial account surpluses—such as Japan in the 1980, the Asia Crisis countries in the 1990s and China today—develop bubble economies. When those bubbles pop, as they inevitably do, they leave behind banking crises and excess capacity. The governments of those countries must then go deeply into debt to bail out the depositors of the failed banks. At the same time, the excess capacity in the economy results in deflation. Economic bubbles and systemic banking crises can be expected to reoccur and deflationary pressure can be expected to persist so long as the US Current Account deficits continue to flood the world with dollar liquidity.>>

Certainly has plenty of truth in it IMO.

As for solutions... well IMO over time it'll work itself out, if that includes his dire warning about 'collapse'... well 'something' would replace whatever it is that collapses. The word 'collapse' is an interesting one.

DAK
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