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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group

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To: Hawkmoon who wrote (97019)	4/30/2003 11:49:25 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (1) of 281500

> The Shias of Iraq need financial support. The Iranians can provide that Say what?! How? Iran is suffering under huge problems, much of it economical. You should read the good article provided by BigBull reply #97018 first (how do you guys link that reply thing?). > The Iranians can provide that in exchange for aligning their Shia interests with those of the Iranian hardliners. And what interests are those? There is nothing in it for them short of being sure an attack from Iraq will not happen again. Since by definition that would make the region unstable, you could say that is in everyone's interest. > The Iranians don't actually have to rule from Karbala, merely control how Shia policies in Iraq are carried out and controlling any leader of a Shiite Theocracy. It can't happen. The stronger another Shia center gets, the weaker Qom becomes. And the word "control" is the wrong word. They have shared interests. It is in their interest that an ideologically friendly regime comes to power in Iraq, in a similar way that it was in Soviet Union's interest to have Communist regime in China. But that is a far cry from control. The Soviets never controlled China. And Iran cannot offer anything like Soviets offered China. > The Catholic church managed to spread their influence and control various other governments from the Vatican, why not the Shiites power meisters in Qom? Because the structure of Shia religion is radically different from Catholic Church. It is pluralistic by nature. A "superior" cleric cannot undo the fatwa of a "lesser" cleric. Nor are they mechanisms of control. And this means, the stronger a Najaf (that is really what you should have named instead of Karbala) gets, the greater the chances that they will oppose Qom. This is not a good thing for the hardliners. Can you imagine the pain they'd have to go through if a major cleric in Najaf voiced a contrary edict on a different issue than them? If Najaf regains its old footing, this would be a big problem for them. > And ambitious Shiite clerics looking for followers and adherents seem like they are racing back to stake their claim and build up supporters. Absolutely! But what does that have to do with Iran? These are political leaders. And politicians everywhere want to increase their power base. No matter what Iran or US does, this cannot be stopped. > I just don't buy the argument that Iranian hardliners would just sit back and not attempt to influence events within the large Shiite population. They are doing their best to influence it. But not in the way you are thinking. This is mostly because they cannot do what you are thinking. What they want, is to have a religiously inclined Shia regime in Iraq which is not an American puppet and is not interested in attacking or making trouble for Iran. This is all they want and all they can hope to get. As it turns out, this is what most Iraqis want as well. So Iran does not need to do much to make this happen. ST

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