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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation

CRSP 55.26

+1.2%

Nov 11 3:59 PM EST

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To: Miljenko Zuanic who wrote (8228)	5/1/2003 7:55:28 AM
From: rkrw	Read Replies (1) of 52153

<<Unfortunately, this model (visible from CEPH and others) depend too much on LUCK. Did NBIX yet completed successful PII trial from its own pipeline?>> Does it matter? Is it luck that they've now gone out and taken advantage of an ftc forced divestiture? Now with nbix and others inlicensing success, almost all bio's claim to be looking for product. Yet nbix takes another phase II drug for nothing. Sure there's luck involved. But what I'm also referencing is taking their time, doing thorough work, changing the product profile before approval to define the modified release product. Also not going nuts during the 99-00 heyday and raising $1B dollars and multiplying the r&d and burn. This is still a modest company, with modest burn rates and a reasonable 31M shares outstanding. They appear to intend to stick to their formula despite a potential future windfall to leverage the eps and stock. Now contrast that with sepracor and millennium (both trying to reverse the damage). If TB and DS of sepr had half the brains and foresight of Lyons they'd be sitting on a $100 stock instead of $19 imo.

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