Aviron Message Board - Msg: 1890347

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Biotech / Medical : Aviron

AVIR 3.490

+3.4%

Nov 12 3:59 PM EST

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To: Vector1 who wrote (88)	8/2/1997 9:15:00 AM
From: Haolin Ni	of 645

Hi, V1, All longs in here say AVIR has great fututr because: A, it has a good clinical trial (which has been priced in since this stock up from about $8 before the results was announced). B, There is a huge market in the US (some one said [8x148= one billion one hundred eighty four million dollar mkt] three days ago but last night he said [ As I mentioned before a 300 million mkt valuation for a company that expects to file with the FDA in 1998 and targets their product on the mkt for the flu seaon of 1999]). They don't have a clear idea the market size of AVIR's vaccine. I would say the best market size in 1999-2000 achiveable for AVIR's vaccine is about 20% existing 80 million dose market. $2 per dose is only 40 million sale in 1999 if every thing goes smoothly. What a big market! The market size may increase if the vaccine really good. Every one must know that result of clinical trial can't be achived when it used in humans because clinical trial is a carefully designed and administrated small project. C, Non injection will increase company's profit margin. They have no medical knowledege how a vaccine is deliveried to the vaccinees. As mentioned by Ms Wu that nasal administration can save nothing for AVIR because all the medical procedure and paper work about the insurance and potential side effects can't been eliminated. It can only save some time of Health care staff who administrate the vaccine to the patient. D, now you say it is good to buy and hold for tax benifit. Sure you are absolute right but why not buy a sure winner, such as MRK or JNJ, or CYBX, its revolutionary medical device for treatment of epilspsy was approved recently. There are too many uncertainty in AVIR and too much risk to hold it for at least two years to see potential earning if it can be ratified by FDA in time. Why do you just forgot threr are so many insiders filed to sell their shares? Can any of you tell me which biotech company have great future have such insiders sell? They tell you this stock is definitely overvalued and it is the best time to take profit instead geting in for long hold.

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