Next stop in the "War on Terror?" Damascus and the Bekaa valley. Bet on it.
Any War on Terror that is worhty of the name, will not leave Hezbullah, the Islamic Jihad, and Hamas free to operate. These organizations in combination with Fatah and it's spin-off's will surely make any "road-map" to a two state solution to the Israeli - Palestian conflict D.O.A. Since direct action against Arafat seems to be not in the cards at this moment, an encirclement/strangulation strategy seems to be the most viable strategy. Syria is now clearly feeling the heat. US spec forces and CIA now have the very wide Syria/Iraq Border to operate out of. Jordans new "Jordan for Jordanians" policy renders any Jordanian support for Syria mute, at best. The Syrian coast is now subject to the scrutiny of the greatest blue water Navy since forever. Israel, under Sharon, represents a potent hostile force to it's southern borders. Syria is surrounded and isolated geographically and militarily. They are now in a position of extreme weakness in terms of political negotiations. Bush has demonstrated his political and military ability to invade and win a war on a major Arab nation deep in the heart of Arab territory.
Imo Powell's visit to Damascus will be to ascertain just how much can be won diplomatically initially with this new leverage. It will also be to lay down red lines and a time table for current and future demands. The "Alawite Prince" will be given a very short grace period to sweat bullets and comply. Prediction: Within two years the Syrian Army will leave Lebanon, The Bekaa valley will no longer host training camps for terror org., terror orgs. will no longer be hq'ed in Damascus.
BTW Iran will be the last of the Axis to be tackled. NK will be successfully "contained."
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Why Hizbullah may be the next terror target for US
csmonitor.com
Officials are determined to brook no interference from terror group as Iraq rebuilds.
By Faye Bowers | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor
WASHINGTON - A couple of days ago, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah addressed thousands of followers in Beirut as he commemorated a 13-centuries-old battle in Iraq that resulted in the death of a Muslim hero.
"Tomorrow brothers and sisters, and I am not exaggerating or throwing out zealous or sentimental words ... is the beginning of the end of the American era in Iraq and the region," he said.
Sheikh Nasrallah is the leader of Hizbullah, or Party of God. Or the A-team of terror groups, as Richard Armitage, deputy secretary of State, puts it. Created and backed by Syria and Iran, Hizbullah's main purpose is the liberation of occupied Arab lands. But it has also attacked US interests: In 1983, a suicide bomber struck the Marine barracks in Beirut, killing 241.
"Until Sept. 11, Hizbullah was responsible for the deaths of more Americans than any other organization," says a US government official. "Hizbullah has killed hundreds of Americans, they have worldwide reach, and they foment problems for the Israeli-Palestinian peace process."
As such, it is likely to be the next target in the US war on terror. In the coming weeks, the Bush administration will continue to rebuild Iraq. In addition, the US plans to reengage on the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. In both cases, the US is determined to brook no interference.
For two weeks, administration officials have pressured Syria to stop its support for the Saddam Hussein regime. But officials and experts say the real target of the criticism - and a coming trip by Secretary of State Colin Powell - is likely Hizbullah.
"To move the peace process along, Syria and Iran will have to lay off their support of Hizbullah, Islamic Jihad, and Hamas," says Martin Indyk, Middle East expert at the Brookings Institution in Washington. "In that context, Hizbullah has got to be made to understand that its terrorism arm must be put out of existence."
Over the years, Hizbullah has developed into probably the most sophisticated terror group in the world, experts say. It is credited with perfecting suicide bombings, airplane hijackings, and setting off simultaneous attacks, and it is the "best at covering their tracks," says Robert Baer, a former CIA operative.
Hizbullah evolved in 1982 in response to the Israeli invasion of Lebanon. Its primary backing has always come from Iran. But it wouldn't exist without Syria's help. "Hizbullah could only be set up with the full cooperation of Damascus," says Stanley Bedlington, a former senior analyst in the CIA's Counterterrorism Center. "The only way Iran could get money, weapons, and its Revolutionary Guard Corps to south Lebanon was through Syria."
Hizbullah's relentless string of attacks on Israelis in south Lebanon resulted in Israel's withdrawal in 2000. In that same vein, Syria would like to see Israel ejected from the Golan Heights, which Israel took from Syria in the 1967 war.
Today, Hizbullah continues to operate training camps in Lebanon. Officials say it trains members of Hamas and Islamic Jihad, which are both Palestinian resistance movements. Government officials say there is also at least tactical-level cooperation with Al Qaeda members.
In addition, the group has cells on every continent, including several in the US and in Canada, officials and experts say. Last June, members of a Hizbullah cell in Charlotte, N.C., were convicted of illegal fundraising activities in the US.
Hizbullah is extremely sophisticated, says Bruce Hoffman, an expert on terror groups at the RAND Corp. in Washington. It has "four different websites in at least three different languages, Al Manar [a satellite TV station], and a radio station."
Yet Hizbullah has also developed a political and humanitarian wing. In the early 1990s, the group began supporting schools, hospitals, and charities, and now even has nine elected members in Lebanon's parliament.
That makes it more accepted as a political movement in the region and among many European countries. This development has made it more difficult for the US to target the group, some experts say, especially considering that it hasn't zeroed in on US interests in some 15 years.
Still, the Bush administration vows to eradicate terror movements and punish states that sponsor them.
"If the president described terrorist groups with global reaches inherently inimical to the US," Mr. Hoffman says, "Hizbullah would have to be on top of that list."
May 1, 2003
U.S. - Syrian Ties Face Critical Moment
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Filed at 5:14 p.m. ET
nytimes.com
DAMASCUS, Syria (AP) -- In the days before Secretary of State Colin Powell's visit to Damascus, Syria has given indications it wants to avoid a collision course with Washington.
It has sealed its border with Iraq. It has expelled more than 30 Iraqis, many from Saddam Hussein's hometown of Tikrit. It coordinated with the Americans the departure from Syria of one-time Iraqi intelligence official Farouk Hijazi, who is now in U.S. custody.
And its state-run newspapers are putting a positive spin on Powell's trip, scheduled to begin Friday.
``We hope that Powell's visit would achieve the hoped-for positive results and would be a real start for U.S.-Syrian relations,'' the daily Al-Thawra said Wednesday.
Just weeks earlier, the Bush administration accused Syria of aiding Saddam by supplying war material, and suggested that U.S. troops would march from Iraq into Syria.
Powell's stop in Damascus comes at a critical crossroad, at a time when the United States is trying to pull Iraq back together and pursue an Israel-Palestinian peace agreement. The trip's outcome could determine whether U.S.-Syrian relations, which have survived decades of tensions, would finally break or grow closer.
If Powell's visit goes badly, Syria will have huge problems in the United States that could set it on the same course that led to military action against Iraq. U.S. conservatives are trying to push a Syria sanctions act in Congress.
If Powell is able to walk away from his meeting with President Bashar Assad with firm promises of cooperation on Iraq and the Mideast peace process, then the Syrians will find greater sympathy in Washington.
``President Bashar needs to work very seriously with the secretary,'' said Edward Walker, a former U.S. ambassador to Egypt and Israel. ``The secretary is the one guy in this administration that can prevent more aggressive actions that some people would like to take.''
Walker, president of the Washington-based Middle East Institute, said the Syrians should ``be very careful'' not to cut Powell again the way they did on his last visit to Syria in April 2002 when they promised not to receive oil through an Iraqi pipeline that runs to Syria's Mediterranean coast, but continued to.
Observers say the Syrians have to make hard choices and fast -- a trait that is alien to a society that favors slow change -- because of recent friction with the United States.
The Syrian-U.S. tensions began months before the Iraq war started, with reports that military hardware was crossing from Syria into Iraq. The Americans brought the issue up with the Syrians, who denied the allegations.
After the war began in March, the Bush administration became furiousby reports that weapons transfers were continuing and that Syria was facilitating the travel of Muslim fighters into Iraq.
That led to unusually harsh accusations by top Bush officials that Syria was sheltering Iraqi fugitives, possessed chemical weapons and supported terrorism.
U.S. officials began exerting intense pressure, telling Damascus that sanctions could result unless Syria cooperated -- which it did, earning praise from President Bush.
Analysts in Syria said Damascus is ready to build relations with Washington that are based on dialogue.
``There's nothing that's not open for dialogue,'' said Fayez Sayegh, former head of Syria's broadcast services and deputy head of the Journalists' Union. ``There's a Syrian desire for focusing on common denominators that could develop between Syria and the United States.''
Powell will seek assurances that the Iraqi-Syrian border would remain closed to weapons and fugitives, that any Iraqis on U.S. wanted lists already in Syria would be expelled and that the Syrians will not meddle in Iraq the way they did in Lebanon.
Powell also is expected to raise concern over the offices kept by several Palestinian factions, including the militant Islamic Hamas and Islamic Jihad, which the U.S. administration has classified as terrorists.
The Syrians have repeatedly denied that planning for anti-Israel attacks takes place in the Damascus offices. But Powell will expect the Syrians to make clear to the groups that if they cross the line they would be expelled.
Another issue that Powell will discuss is the Lebanese Hezbollah guerrilla group, which led the fight against Israel's occupation of a strip in south Lebanon. The Israelis pulled out in May 2000.
Powell will also seek Syrian support for the peace process and for the newly formed Palestinian government.
Said Walker: ``We would like them to be an active participant in the overall peace process so that we can get this Palestinian thing behind us and then turn our attention to the ... Syrian Golan Heights,'' which Israel has occupied since 1967. |
