Heinz Blasnik- Views You Can Use Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Heinz Blasnik- Views You Can Use

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To: GraceZ who wrote (598)	5/1/2003 8:15:07 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (2) of 4912

<The imbalance is caused by the simple fact that we have a much higher standard of living then much of the rest of the world which allows us to buy more of what they make then they can buy of what we make. The only cure for this type of imbalance is to have us reach parity with them. > Actually, theoretically in a 2 economy world [to simplify], that is impossible, there wouldn't be any trade if they didn't want something of ours of equal value :) Perhaps the imbalance is caused by their willingness to buy our favorite export... $US's! I'm particularily bearish on the dollar because of the vast pool held as reserves while more is being pushed into the resevoir. Why the DXY doesn't simply open @ 86 tomorrow and get it over with I don't know... all the players know there is more coming, just take a cheaper price. Markets are strange animals however [ie. we are strange beings -gg-], and paradigms take time to shift.... participants have known for a long time and did nothing, human nature I suppose. Once paradigms do shift, it's usually swift however :) I agree with most of your post however and the long term ramifiations of income disparity is certainly hitting home in the labour market. Interestingly enough talking heads keep telling people that it doesn't matter because we will simply create higher end products that foreigners WILL want creating better paying jobs for them? In reality, over the long run, one would expect pretty much the same income distribution in most countries, and there was no reason to expect that for a period [decades? Hundreds of years? No one really knows] the US wouldn't develope a class of poor similar to other developing nations. Of course it all comes out in the wash, and there is really not much government can do... but they'll try, and that might portend a buy signal upcoming :) As usual JMWO DAK

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