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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: Mike Buckley who wrote (53935)5/1/2003 9:50:34 PM
From: kech  Read Replies (2) of 54805
 
Mike - What would you say is the difference between FUD and "good marketing"? Most of the examples you present IBM and Intel seem to be more related to cases of companies with great and successful marketing campaigns. These campaigns highlight the "benefits" of their product in the customers mind relative to competitors products benefits.
I would agree that Nokia and operators such as ATT and Cingular have done a great job in obfuscating and downplaying the disadvantages of their service and emphasizing other things that more or less just muddies the waters as customers make choices. This is a form of marketing and I wouldn't call it FUD.

FUD on the other hand, I would reserve for explicit and misrepresentative attacks on the competitor's products, timelines of deployment, expected success of competitors products etc. The key is to take the very small probability tails of a distribution of possible events and amplify their supposed probability and present this as actually the expected outcome. I.e. the WCDMA crowd has constantly used the canard that CDMA2000 will be a "niche" product forever. "You will be left isolated and alone if you use CDMA2000 while the rest of the world will roam everywhere they want." What is funny is how the original percentage of WCDMA to CDMA200 was originally portrayed as 95:5, then 90:10, then 80:20. As UMTS/WCDMA struggles to get its first million subscribers and CDMA 2000 has over 30 million, it is becoming clearer that this split could be closer to 50:50 5 years from now and much higher in favor of CDMA2000 between now and then. So now who is the niche technology? The key point here is that it was misrepresentation all along, and still is, that CDMA2000 is a niche, yet the FUD campaign continues. The whole marketing tag of 3GSM (notice how I call this brilliant marketing not FUD) is designed to give the laurel of GSM market share to WCDMA market share and hence sustain the misrepresentation. Thus in this case there can be a connection between good marketing (ie. 3GSM) and FUD the misrepresentation of CDMA2000 as a niche technology relative to UMTS.

In this respect, Dr Jacobs comments are not "FUD" because from any objective account he is now the only person with a credible track record on WCDMA deployment. He is not misrepresenting the case and no one can claim that he is who is aware of the atrocious record of Nokia and UMTS/WCDMA representatives.
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