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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated
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To: D. Long who wrote (193)5/1/2003 11:26:49 PM
From: JohnM  Read Replies (2) of 794098
 
The Dems have no credibility outside the "coastlines."

Derek,

We simply don't know right now. I consider your view to be fanciful thinking on your part. Perhaps spent too long in Houston. Remember that the newly elected governor of your home state, Pa, is a Dem?

Best I can tell three things dominate everything else in the polls. First, the Bush folk successfully nationalized the congressional elections in 02. I don't expect that to continue. But it's hard to say. Second, my guess is that the Iraq invasion effect just dominates polling to the point it's hard to know what will happen in the next round of national elections. Third, the Dems have no voice to counter the Bush voice right now. The primaries will help bring someone into prominence. Then we'll see.

Unless the Dem candidate is spectacularly inept or the Bush folk use the White House advantage to either threaten or actually start another war, I expect the 04 congressional and presidential elections to be close.
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