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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing

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To: russwinter who started this subject	5/2/2003 12:53:27 AM
From: gold$10k	Read Replies (1) of 39344

FWIW, a big picture XAU/HUI scenario... bigcharts.marketwatch.com Looking at a 2 year chart, I can see a huge triangle continuing to form (bullish, typically a continuation pattern) since the end of last May. Both XAU and HUI triangles have an ascending bottom, but the top of HUI's triangle is flat while XAU's is descending, which makes sense since XAU is the weaker index. The endpoint of each triangle would be reached at about the same time (22.5 months) but breakout from a triangle is generally achieved in about 2/3 to 3/4 of that amount of time (15-17 months) which puts the breakout in the September-November, 2003 timeframe. From the breakout point, the HUI target would be 210 while the XAU target would be 110 (end of May, 2004?). If this scenario is correct, then the current rally would be constrained by XAU 80 / HUI 155 and its completion by May 30th would seem reasonable.

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