Aviron Message Board - Msg: 1890616

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Biotech / Medical : Aviron

AVIR 3.490

+3.4%

Nov 12 3:59 PM EST

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To: Haolin Ni who wrote (89)	8/2/1997 11:04:00 AM
From: Brad C. Dunlap	of 645

At this point nobody has an exact figure on mkt size and admittedly this is more subjective then other industries since in theory AVIR's product could apply to every human being. The NIH as well as the likes of Sturza have given pertanent info that you atttempted to refute. All you need to do is show where you get your info which I don't believe that even you know where your info orriginates. As far as using a price of $2 per dose, once again where do you get such info. I posted earlier that the average WHOLESALE price for flu vaccines has been $4 to $5 dollars. Where do you get this info? AS far as not having the mentality to understand how flu vaccines are delivered to vacninees is a point that you can pound your chest on since this is high rocket science. Please give me your explanation on this highly refined operation. I asked Wu a number of questions to hear his take on issues as well as many others who are more knowledgable then myself on the topic of influenza vaccines. I might add that there are some very impressive names from the likes of the NIH that have made very positve public comments on AVIR's vaccine and most of the focus has been of the strong efficacy and the nasal delievery. I certalinly believe that the company is in an enviable position from a marketing point of view since they could charge a premium due to superior efficacy and nasal delivery which increases margins or go for increased market share with a reduced selling price that Sturza has factored into his model. Apparently, STurza feels that there is a process that reduces the cost or is eliminated with AVIR's product over typical flu shots and I'll find more about this next week. I do believe you are doing yourself a real disservice in your statement about naming one other biotech that insider sold that has a bright future. Agouron has gone from the 20's to hit a new high of 103 on Friday in the past 1 1/2 yrs with much insider selling along the way. Idec pharm which moved from 3 to 32 over the past 2 1/2 yrs with many insiders that dumped in the high teens before it hit its high of 32. Centacour, Biogen along with most of the large pharmaceuticals all have had failry high selling by insiders in the past yr in spite of their impressive moves and bright futures. Actually ,there has been much selling in AVIR that appears as insider selling and at a closer look at the filings it has not been officers or directors of AVIR but rather regular individuals who had invested a few yrs ago in a private placement and there selling was reported as if it where insider selling but clearly is not. I did notice that a few of what I presume where venture capitalists of AVIR sold some of their holdings and I found it interesting that they were the likes of Massechusetes Institute of Technology [MIT] and Yale University which had placed money in AVIR when clearly there was much greater risk in the product.It appears that you don't follow insiders buy/sells very closely which is no big deal and not meant to be an insult but I can tell you as I have exeperienced the hard way that insider selling has cost me many lost profits if I hadn't sold my position following the insider selling. Not that insider selling is a not a negative because it certainly is but rather it is only human nature to take some money off the table in stocks that have made huge % moves. If you went back and looked at some of the greatest % movers in the past 7 yrs ouside of the biotech sector with the likes of Cisco, Ascend, and Stratacom [ purchased by Cisco] you will notice HUGE insider selling all the way up. Finally, the longs haven't forgot about what appeared to be insider selling since it was I who brought this to the attention of the shorts.

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