Lizze,
If you look at my old post's from last year. This is
the reasoning I used. IP normally recovers befor optics. Why?. Because the core is built out the next focus will be access. If ISP's are tight with their money (VER,SBC etc) they will only spend if there is a new customer potential. Hence, the focus on access. Thus I focused on the access
part and some other trends picked up the following.
1) BRCM (at 11-12) cable, wi-fi, etc
2) VTSS (100% access and storage for enterprise. they shed their pure telcom chips (framers, gige etc}. Picked a lot up
last year at 1.30
3) MRVL ( at $10. Pure GIGE play, for the enterprise. Also a Wi Fi player. GIGE is mostly integerated with INTC. }
4) AMCC {NPU player. Trend from Asic to NPU's. Bad for LSI, but good for AMCC. Access business 30%, 70% core telecom}. Telecom core will return back in 2004. Cash rich 1 billion)
5) PMCS { edge play, storage, and MIP's. 10% Cisco customer
got in at $4.00 last year + China play via ZTE )
6) LNOP { owns Ezchip venture play. Very risky. Speculative.
Best NPU architecture on the planet. Based in
Israel. LNOP owns 70% of Ezchip. China play, and
has 10 customers in trials.
7) RFMD { picking up currently at these battered level. Wi-Fi plus CDMA play. Cheaper way to play QCOM }
8) CIEN { metro access via ONI. My larget holding. Should be the leading player. Check out the post I put on this board last week.
9) NSM {edge play. Wi-fi, PDA's and FOVEON. Go to the Foveon
thread. You have to be patient for Foveon revenues to kick in. Best analog play. picked it up at $12 last year}
10) SYNA owns 15% of Foveon + edge PDA touch technology play.
11) ALTR { FPGA's replacing Ascis. Good palyer }.
LNOP is very risky. Anyway, any trial which go on takes about 12-18 months to get revenue on the books. So, we will see a gradual impovement as revenue kicks in. You have to be real patient like I did last year, and see the fruits this year. The others I picked up at rock bottom prices were
ADI, XLNX, and JDSU. You, have to be patient with JDSU. Component players are going out of business, and ultimately 2 years forth JDSU will be a key player. So, while thestreet.com and the Anindo's of the world growl this bull is smiling and saying thanks for scaring people away.
Currently, I am picking up SYNA, LNOP and RFMD. Sold JNPR which I had got at 4.00. I do not have an unlimited cash cushion, and hence have to sell to re-invest, else I would not have sold. I still have to make up my losses from the bear market, but the savvy investor should have been investing in fundametals and not listening to analysts baloney { core buildout is dead, internet traffic is not growing, capacity is there for 10 years}. If analysts were wrong on the way down, how can they be right on the way up?.
When PDA's, Enterprise to 10 Gige, Wi-Fi takes over, and DSL poliferates there will be more traffic, and that will lead to more equipment. So we will seee. Cheers, Immi |
