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Pastimes : SARS - what next?
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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (378)5/3/2003 3:14:49 PM
From: Maurice Winn  Read Replies (3) of 1070
 
x = 10 deaths.

Cumulative deaths
26 Feb ?
..5 Mar x
12 Mar x
19 Mar x
26 Mar xx
...2 Apr xxxxx
...9 Apr xxxxxxxxxx
.16 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
.23 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
.30 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [actual 372]
..3 May xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [435]

Once the 'recovered' are half the cumulative total infected, that seems to be an indicator that the battle is on the way to a human win.
who.int

Taiwan and China are on that basis the losing places. Hong Kong is almost getting it under control. The rest of the world has cornered it. But it is heading into summer in the northern hemisphere, so Sars was going to take a summer vacation anyway. Let's see how we go in October and through winter. That'll be the test.

Meanwhile, on a weekly basis: Deaths for the week.
x = 10 deaths.
z = early days, fewer than 10 per week.
26 Feb z
..5 Mar z
12 Mar z
19 Mar z
26 Mar x
...2 Apr xxx
...9 Apr xxxxx
.16 Apr xxxxxx
.23 Apr xxxxxxxxx
.30 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxx [120 actual]
..7 May xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [my estimate, total = 150, reduced by 10 from my previous estimate a couple of days ago, but it's still gaining ground].

Mqurice
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