Hi Jay - Don't know Paramount. I will likely buy some more AVN, maybe ERF in the next two weeks.
If I look at what the range of possible natural gas prices might be by January 2004, the range is still VERY wide, but moving a bit upward.
The chance of Natural gas prices lower than $4.50 in Jan 2004 is getting smaller - now maybe under 5%. It will not go to zero until very late, because exceptionally mild weather (not the 100 year storm, but the 100 year 'pleasant') will always be a finite possibility.
Part of the range (maybe 1-2% probablity) now appears to include a California level natural gas shortage. Average price in December 2001 was about $15.00 USD /Mcf.
Economic effects of that were nasty - lots of business shutdowns, etc.
If a $5.50 / mcf gas price produces a distribution of 1% per month....
I really don't expect $15.00 - more like a $7.00 to $9.00 range for November, December , January, February.
Plus a lot of magazine articles about how the natural gas shortage is permanent, and prices will go even higher, and we should burn coal and dried seaweed etc. When we get the Economist, Time Magazine, or BusinessWeek cover stories, it'll be time to look at exit plans. BusinessWeek might have one early however - they sometimes get a little ahead of the curve. |
