Thank you for that aspect of reserve estimation.
Switch topic and just to do my 1,000 mile oil check:0)
If I understand KastelCo and yourself correctly, I would conclude ...
(a) There are a couple of reputable oil/gas trusts and these include AVN, ERF, NCF/NCN, PMT, PGF/PGH, PWI/PWI, PVE/PVX, VET, HGT, SJT
(b) They (I reviewed some of their 2001 and ERF & NCF/NCN's 2003 annual report) have a profile of reserve life, accretive acquisition, oil/gas mix, market geography, hedging, financing, size, elapsed time of existence, payout rate, etc
(c) Gas price has been increasing and may increase more, even though it may weaken between now and summer, and oil price may decrease on a more sustained basis if Iraq democracy cause succeed and Saudi monarchy cause does not fail, and Venezuelan democracy does fail
(d) Trusts share price may dip in the mean nasty time, and then can zoom upward off the back of hot summer and cold winter
Is this about where KastelCo and yourself stand?
By the way, I have not detected any wobble of these share prices because the shares I had bought and that I am watching are all green, and some quite substantially. So, when you are thinking 'wobble' you are thinking in terms of minus 5% or minus 15%?
Let me put it more bluntly, while I understand you have been in these chips for some time, of the 100% amount you are willing to commit to oil/gas royalties, what % are you bought already? I am assuming that you are of the belief that a day you do not sell is a day you bought.
Chugs, Jay |
