Gary, whatever the position with that lent gold, whether it's 7000 tonnes or 15,000 tonnes or whatever, I take a different view from Messrs Turk, Veneroso, Howell and Murphy.
Firstly, everyone knows about it. It's no secret. The information, such as it is, is already factored into the gold price.
Secondly, the alleged "overhang" has existed for many years already and doesn't seem to have had any influence on the market, one way or another.
Thirdly, the hypothesisis, at present, is purely speculative. They don't know for sure that the gold is actually gone.
Fourthly, if the gold is "missing", presumed sold, then that confirms my own view that the Central Banks have every intention, if not actually to "demonetize' gold, then certainly to keep is price down.
Fifthly, as I see it and as I have said before, there is no particular demand for gold as there once was, especially for investment, and, further, there is a far greater mining production. Indeed, as production falls in South Africa, as it has been doing for many years already, it is immediately replaced by new sources in many other places around the world. In fact, as I see it, gold is not a particularly scarce commodity and if its price rises then many new sources will immediately come on-stream. One doesn't have to be a genius to see how all this will affect the price.
Sixthly, the CBs are still sitting on an enormous amount of gold which they no longer need to "back" their fiat money and which they can't easily sell.
Nevertheless, Messrs TVH&M believe that by "exposing" and embarrassing the CBs they will cause the banks to have to repurchase the "missing" gold This will corner the shorts and so effect a massive increase in the gold price.
Well, it hasn't happened yet --- and, in my opinion, for what that's worth, it never will. |
