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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated
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To: LindyBill who wrote (476)5/5/2003 11:38:40 AM
From: JohnM  Read Replies (2) of 793958
 
Is the Dem base so anti-war that the candidates on this end will do well?

Good question and one I gather there's no good answer for. It's fairly easy to offer categories from strongly opposed to the invasion, to concerned about the run up and possible consequences, to support such as Clinton offered. But it's almost impossible to attach serious numbers to the categories. Moreover, my guess is the numbers in those categories are very fluid. If the Bush folk fail to find any serious wmd threat, the support numbers go down; if there are serious attacks on US troops in Iraq, it's hard to say what the numbers do, probably the support numbers go up. My own sense, at least right now, is that the Dem candidate has to be plausible on the defense side but the election is more likely to spin on the economy, unless we are attacked or the Bush folk ratchet up another confrontation close to the election. Given the way they handled the runup to the invasion, it's obvious they are capable of doing that.
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