Semico's Inflection Point Indicator Signals Positive Semiconductor Industry Outlook
Business Editors/High-Tech Writers
PHOENIX--(BUSINESS WIRE)--May 5, 2003--Semico Research Corp. today revealed the Semico Inflection Point Indicator (IPI(TM)) indicates a strengthened outlook for the worldwide semiconductor industry. Semico's IPI(TM) was positive in March, reversing the negative three-month trend. A four-month IPI(TM) negative trend would have signaled an impending downturn in 3Q03 and 4Q03.
With the exception of June 2002, the IPI had been positive between February 2002 and November 2002 before the decline that began in December 2002. "The reversal of the IPI(TM) leaves us optimistic about an upturn in the industry for the second half of this year, but we remain vigilant regarding other factors that could undermine this direction," said Jim Feldhan, president, Semico Research Corp. Semico cited uncertainties about the SARS virus, potential terrorist attacks, and the health of U.S. and global economies as factors that could continue to hamper the semiconductor industry, as they did in the first quarter.
Despite the negatives that occurred in the first quarter, there are encouraging signs that the market is picking up. "A number of companies have recently reported promising results, and aggregate ASPs have been on the rise, which will help sustain the upturn," stated Feldhan. "General economic conditions are also improving, and we expect both consumer and business confidence to rebound with the end of the war," he continued. Feldhan also cited increased foundry capacity utilization as a key indicator that the semiconductor industry is experiencing growth.
The IPI(TM) forecasts the industry six to nine months in advance; thus, if the March IPI(TM) is the beginning of a positive trend, an upturn in revenue shipments is expected in late 3Q and 4Q03. It would be the start of a trend that was originally forecast to begin in the first half of the year.
Semico's IPI(TM) tool has proven to be a leading indicator to the trends, anticipating directional changes and additionally providing a platform for long-term forecasting. Semico Research uses the IPI(TM) in conjunction with the Tracker Index, which provides a short-term outlook for sales in the following three months. Both the IPI(TM) and the Tracker Index are included in the Semico Tracker, a monthly newsletter that provides key insights and analysis of the worldwide semiconductor industry. The Tracker includes monthly forecasts and briefings on the most significant semiconductor component and end-use markets.
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CONTACT: Semico Research Corp., Phoenix
John Cerilli, 602/997-0337
johnc@semico.com
KEYWORD: ARIZONA
INDUSTRY KEYWORD: HARDWARE
SOURCE: Semico Research Corp.
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