MCain’s maverick mantle
By Hans Nichols
hillnews.com
As the 2004 presidential campaign heats up, Democratic hopefuls are competing in a variety of unofficial primaries — the media primary, the consultant primary, the money primary, the congressional primary and, now, what some political operatives are calling the “McCain primary.”
While Democratic operatives cautioned that it may be too early to declare a winner in this category, they say former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean is emerging as the frontrunner to become the Democratic avatar of Sen. John McCain — the maverick Arizona Republican who nearly derailed the 2000 Bush juggernaut.
“To be frank, almost any Democrat would like to have the ex-McCain … [mantle]. There’s a tremendous benefit there,” said Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster who is not affiliated this year with any presidential campaign.
Other pollsters and operatives agree that there’s a race among Democrats to be anointed as this year’s straight-talking candidate as they attempt to re-create McCain’s success in appealing to independents and swing voters in the key primary states.
Although McCain has longstanding relationships with Sens. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut and John Kerry of Massachusetts, Dean still is emerging as the favorite in the McCain primary.
Lake said the two candidates who are closest to McCain personally — Kerry and Lieberman — are, ironically, the farthest away stylistically, as they are both widely perceived as “establishment” candidates.
“Dean is the most McCain-like character because he doesn’t waver in his opinions,” said Lake. He has been outspoken in his opposition to the Iraq war, supportive of gun rights and a backer of gay rights.”
Veteran Democratic strategist Donna Brazile said: “There’s no doubt that Howard Dean has the buzz around him like McCain did,” adding that although the primary still is in an early stage, “the candidates are vying for who has the most buzz and most energy.”
Though Dean appears to be the frontrunner in that invisible primary, pollsters and consultants note that the 2004 campaign is still in its infancy and that there is plenty of time for any of the other Democratic hopefuls to carry McCain’s straight-talk banner. In particular, retired Gen. Wesley Clark, a possible candidate, is mentioned as a potential heir to McCain’s legacy — especially given their common military pedigree.
Other pollsters and consultants say Dean is winning the “activist primary” among his party’s left-leaning voters while also appealing to the independent and less partisan voters who handed McCain his upset victory over then-Gov. George W. Bush in New Hampshire.
And although observers say Lieberman has teamed with McCain more often than any other Democratic candidate — especially on McCain’s signature issue, campaign finance reform and, more recently, on supporting the Iraq war — that
doesn’t necessarily translate into support among independent McCain supporters.
In addition, say Democrats, the McCain demographic doesn’t necessarily relate to specific issues.
“It’s less about ideology and more about temperament and style,” said Lake.
“To some degree, the McCain phenomenon included some supporters who identified themselves as liberals, and they will support Dean,” said John Zogby, a pollster who has worked for McCain.
Zogby continued: “Dean appears to be appealing to the liberal base, but he’s also … [appealing] to independents by saying, ‘I am willing to speak my mind.’ That’s how Howard Dean goes beyond just the anti-war vote.
“Al Gore didn’t defeat Bill Bradley in New Hampshire. John McCain defeated Bill Bradley in New Hampshire. McCain’s support came right out of Bradley’s rump.”
Will Marshall, president of the Progressive Policy Institute, a think tank for centrist Democrats, agreed that McCain’s showing in New Hampshire in 2000 has altered the primary calculus, although he was less than enthusiastic about Dean’s assuming McCain’s mantle.
“New Hampshire independents will play a large role in selecting the nominee,” Marshall said. “Dean has been running to the left in Iowa, but that doesn’t necessarily prevent him from appealing to moderates and independents in New Hampshire.”
John Weaver, the consultant who orchestrated McCain’s 2000 campaign and switched parties to be a Democratic consultant in 2002, also said he didn’t like the idea that Dean appears to be appropriating McCain’s maverick image.
“You’re not a maverick just because you call yourself one,” Weaver said. “Self-proclamation doesn’t do it. The voters have some say in the matter as well.”
Weaver claimed that regardless of their stylistic similarities, the two are ideologically different and represent different positions on the political spectrum.
“I don’t see Howard Dean having the growth potential that McCain had, because of where’s he put himself ideologically,” said Weaver, noting Dean’s staunch anti-war politics.
Nor does the Dean campaign like the suggestion it is borrowing from McCain’s playbook. “We see that we’re winning the Dean primary,” said Kate O’Connor, a Dean campaign aide. She continued: “Some of our supporters may have been for McCain and some of them are Bradley people, but Gov. Dean is who he is.” |
