January Effect 2003 Message Board

STOCKTALK

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Strategies & Market Trends : January Effect 2003

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To: Londo who wrote (442)	5/6/2003 12:26:49 PM
From: RockyBalboa	Read Replies (1) of 666

Any bets from your side on the effect of today's rate decision? My thoughts: There are 2 or 3 very tense situations. The EUR could react into negative territory (25% chances). The natural result of a completely "expected" action + discussion (including slowly improving economy...) could lead to further usd pounding. The tresuries could get a hit, if the economic improvements are stronger than expected (25-30% chances). Stocks could sell off if the fed emphasises that a neutral bias shall be maintained (due to the slow recovery) (40% odds). Somehow, it look as if the treasuries don't behave right. Despite the strong stocks they do not sell off very much. And the spread between the SR and US makes me a bit wondering (the US is a bit too rich). Naturally I would even think that we have "retarded" selling...with a selling frenzy after the verdict is out. I'm tired, from clipping small amounts off the futures. Won't be around much, therefore. -------------------------- Right now we have: EUR 03M 1325, SPX 935 US 03M 3"27 my first thoght would be: long stocks, short eur and short tsy. But I'm not sure yet.

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