SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: Jim Mullens who wrote (53988)5/6/2003 2:58:59 PM
From: Eric L  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
Next Generation Wireless Network and Services

Jim,

<< Which term(s) are your referring to "next generation services" / "next generation network"? >>

Both, but what touches the customer, is "next generation services."

mMode is AWS's branding for next generation services, just as Vision is for PCS's next generation services.

When AWS upgrades their network from GPRS using CS1/CS2,to EDGE and GPRS CS3/CS4, the next generation services will remain the same and identical services will be accessed by users of older 2.5G GPRS phones as well as users of newer EDGE capable phones and GPRS EDGE WLAN modems. the greater data transmission rates and EDGE QoS will simply enhance the user experience.

<< Do you believe "next generation network" is proper in describing GPRS? >>

Absolutely and unequivocally.

As I noted, I have been using the term for some time to describe both GPRS and 1xRTT networks.

I have a far easier time describing GPRS with its upgraded core, IP backbone, and new data services bearer, as a next generation network, than I do accepting 1xRTT Release Zero as 3G, or will have accepting 1xRTT Release A or GSM EDGE as 3G even though EDGE is an ITU IMT-2000 3G standard, and Release A 1xRTT at 144 kbps peak, or alternatively 307 kbps peak, or 614 kbps peak is the low end component of CDMA2000.

Feel free to call any of the above 3G if that appeals to you, but I'll call them next generation until 1xEV-DO or 1xEV-DV, or 3GSM WCDMA is implemented - and bear in mind that by the time that 3GSM WCDMA is implemented here in the States it will be implemented with 3GPP Rel 4 which realistically but still theoretically bumps circuit switched data transmission to 384 kbps from 64 kbps and peak packet data transmission to 2 Mbps, and it may even be implemented with the Release 5 HSDPA capabilities that bump peak packet data transmission to 10 Mbps and allows supplemental EDGE to offer all-IP rich voice.

Sonera created some controversy last September 26, when they released their 3G Multimedia Services on a 2.5G GSM GPRS next generation network. I have no problem with that and I have no problem with Verizon and Sprint PCS claiming a capability of offering 3G services on their evolved (or evolving) next generation networks.

AWS is in an enviable position. They are implementing a brand new. state of the art, end to end evolved GSM MAP next generation network, interfaced with GAIT gateways to their legacy ANSI-41 IS-136 network core.

On the radio network side they are implementing new frames for base station cabinetry that use existing sites and peripherals. 90% of their base GSM GPRS station transceivers can be software upgraded via a network broadcast to GPRS C3/C4 and EDGE, and 3G WCDMA transceivers can be racked in to those same base stations at the appropriate time which is when wireless data demand justifies it. The core can be upgraded with an all-IP subsystem.

Their chosen approach is costly. What they are doing is more expensive than what Verizon and PCS and US Cellular or Cingular or T-Mobile are doing, but when they are all done they will have a far cleaner implementation, with far less legacy baggage to contend with, and that will give them a competitive edge in the market.

In the interim and theoretically 1xRTT Release Zero, which is faster than GPRS by about 2x, gives the advantage to 1xRTT, but that is a short window, and one that Verizon and PCS can not really exploit because their "nationwide" next generation networks are not nationwide - more Hype.

A funny thing is happening in that regard. AWS, Cingular, and T-Mobile, are doing something that GSM carriers have long done, because of the extreme focus by the GSM community on network to network interoperability, and uniform implementation of underlying services. They are acting in a spirit of mutually advantageous competitive cooperation or "coopetition."

T-Mobile is the closest thing that exists in the US to a true nationwide next generation network, but their nationwide buildout is rather fragile and somewhat lean, as they are still building out in areas they obtained in the initial C-Block auction of bankrupted carriers spectrum. Western Wireless which in 1999 spun off the original VoiceStream just announced that they would convert their CDMA and TDMA properties to EDGE ready GSM GPRS and provide both voice and data roaming for T-Mobile (and others).

AWS is well along in their next generation buildout, and are already "nationwide" across their 1900 MHz POPs but not their 800 MHz pops, where they are starting to fill in. In addition, all of their major roaming affiliates (Sun, Tritorn, Dobson) are rapidly converting to EDGE ready GSM GPRS. AWS was also the first carrier in the US to implement 3GPP and OMA standardized MMS and implemented Java OTA download services about the same time as PCS.

Cingular by contrast is moving along with their 800 MHz next gen buildout to supplement their 1900 MHz buildouts in the former PacBell and BellSouth PCS regions, and in other areas where they hold both 800 MHz and 1900 MHz licenses.

In the interim, in addition to some existing JV's for joint buildout between Cingular and T-Mobile, AWS and Cingular, AWS and T-Mobile, we have new recent announcements of nationwide voice and data roaming between AWS, T-Mobile, and Cingular, and as a consequence their is an instant true nationwide next generation network, offering seamless GSM voice, GSM circuit-switched data, and "always on" GPRS packet data, upgradable to faster EDGE "always on" GPRS packet data

All this in the long standing GSM spirit of coopetition.

It is my understanding - and I've heard it from some reasonably reliable sources although I can't confirm it - that Verizon Wireless CEO Denny Strigl was incensed when PCS launched Vision 1xRTT services and called it "nationwide" although it was far from nationwide, and that he vowed that even though PCS was in some decreasing locales, a Verizon Voice roaming partner, that they would never be a Packet data services roaming partner, and that when Verizon got done with a methodical fully optimized nationwide buildout

Now while I can't confirm the above, I do know that although the CDMA and carrier and vendor community have made great strides in vendor to vendor interoperability that is not yet on a par with GSM and GSM GPRS, nor is the implementation of underlying services anywhere as uniform, making it much more difficult for PCS, Verizon, and ALLTELL, to act in the same "coopetively" spirit.

Going one step further as it relates to the 3 major GSM carriers and their coopetition I am beginning to formulate a half baked hypothesis. One of the constraints that American mobile wireless carriers operate under is lack of sufficient spectrum, regardless of technology deployed, to build a big data pipe sufficient to fill a need I hope exists several years out when mobile wireless data services are more mature and more widely accepted.

With their current spectrum inventory most GSM carriers have insufficient spectrum to deploy WCDMA. AWS is the possible exception. They claim that they have sufficient spectrum currently available to deploy WCDMA in 70% of their current major markets. Likewise, Verizon has more robust spectrum inventory than PCS, and they are consequently more likely and more capable of deploying 1xEV-DO than PCS in (some) major markets, who at least according to their CTO plans to wait for 1xEV-DV.

The FCC has, however, lifted the spectrum cap, and as a result we will see more spectrum swaps, and M&A, that will increase spectrum inventory for the majors.

In addition the FCC will be auctioning additional spectrum between 1700 MHz and 2500 MHz and those with sufficient capital and spectrum needs will be bidding for it, and eventually after its cleared will build out in it on an as needed basis.

In the interim, it occurs to me that while Cingular, and T-Mobile, don't currently have sufficient spectrum to build out WCDMA, that AWS, Cingular, and T-Mobile acting coopetively in fact do, and we may in fact see them pooling spectrum and capital resource and doing just that at some point in time.

Long term of course this would be beneficial to a Qualcomm shareholder.

JMHO and FWIW, and watch out for Hype (being victimized by it or helping promulgate it).

Best,

- Eric -
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext