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Non-Tech : NOTES
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To: Didi who wrote (2122)5/6/2003 3:33:53 PM
From: Didi  Read Replies (1) of 2505
 
Phil. Fed: "The Anxious Index"

phil.frb.org <---chart

phil.frb.org

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>>> The Anxious Index

The anxious index is the probability of a decline in real GDP in the quarter after a survey is taken.
...For example, in the survey taken in the first quarter of 2003, the anxious index is 21 percent, which means that forecasters believe there is a 21 percent chance that real GDP will decline in the second quarter of 2003.

The accompanying chart illustrates the movements of the anxious index over time, beginning in the fourth quarter of 1968.

The index often goes up just BEFORE recessions begin.
... For example, the first quarter survey of 2001 (taken in February) reported a 32 percent anxious index; the National Bureau of Economic Research subsequently declared the start of a recession in March 2001.

The anxious index PEAKS during recessions, then DECLINES when RECOVERY seems NEAR.
... For example, the index fell to 14 percent in the second quarter of 2002, when economic indicators began improving.<<<
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