Aviron Message Board - Msg: 1892019

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Biotech / Medical : Aviron

AVIR 3.060

-12.3%

12:44 PM EST

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To: Vector1 who wrote (88)	8/2/1997 5:49:00 PM
From: Brad C. Dunlap	of 645

Hi Vector, I do tend to agree with you that shorting is different way of thinking and do agree that shorting a stock such as AVIR with a mkt cap of 300 mill + could lead to trying times. Until you have been caught in a genuine short sqeeze such as what has happened to the many dead shorts in Agouron then you know what can happen. Being that I am involved with two hedge funds my required shorts are used as a portfolio hedge and I try not to get too hung up on rooting for individual company failures. However, this bull mkt has been one impressive ride and at some point in time the shorts will have their day in the sun. It is fair to point out that stocks on average go up far more and for longer durations then they go down and this fits well with your long term buy hold strategy. The short sellers certainly have a necessary place in markets from commodaties, indexes, and stocks, to keep market sentiment in check and to provide added liquidity. A public forum such as this would be ideal if the shorts on this particular thread would post numbers and facts from reputable sources, not only to assist other short sellers but to enlighten the longs as well. To do otherwise is a disservice to all.The facts that are highlighted could be intelligently debated and discussed and modified in friendly tones to increase the knowledge of all involved. However, on this thread there never is any explanation to points that are made and where the info orriginates which leads me believe that there is no explanation or sources. We all make mistakes in analysis and my points can and should be refuted with documented references. Wu made some fine points that I don't necessary agree with but I certainly see his angle and maybe he is right in his short position and I am wrong. You have a darn good point on the possible undervaluation in the biotechs due fund managers trying to be where the action is to keep pace with the S&P index and living quarter to quarter for performance. The biotechs certainly have been lagging in relative performance but I still believe before this bull comes to an end the biotechs will have over achieved. The fundamentals for the industry have never been better with more drugs getting approval and a multiple from past history that are in late stages of their clinical development. There has been public and congressional pressure on the FDA to speed the approval times of NDA's and technology has dramatically improved as well. Anyway, I will be looking for your continued comments on AVIR.

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