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Pastimes : SARS - what next?
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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (399)5/7/2003 12:51:57 AM
From: Maurice Winn  Read Replies (2) of 1070
 
Sars still gaining ground in China. It's mayhem! who.int

x = 10 deaths.
Cumulative deaths
26 Feb ?
..5 Mar x
12 Mar x
19 Mar x
26 Mar xx
...2 Apr xxxxx
...9 Apr xxxxxxxxxx
.16 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
.23 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
.30 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
..6 May xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [478]

Everyone else, excluding Taiwan, seems to be winning. Even Hong Kong seems to be getting on top of it. More or less.

Meanwhile, on the death rate, we know that 7% was wishful thinking!

At a 50% death rate [more or less] for those over 70 [or maybe 60] the demographic change and economic impact, if Sars gets loose next winter, will be major.

Old people use a lot of medical services and they occupy single person empty-nest homes. A major infection rate would:

Reduce future medical expenses
Cut old age pension payments
Put houses on the market

Mqurice
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