Thanks, K. I also don't see easy paths to recovery. I see a long, drawn out process. One that is currently underway and one that has shown plenty of progress. Most of the industries that I follow have a substantial number of companies who have worked hard to improve their business models. There has been a massive effort to become leaner and "better" investments.
Low business cycles, while difficult to weather, are important as they ultimately cull the heard of the dead weight. Any time we are in a recession, there is always a fraction of people who can only see the situation growing worse. Often, these are the belly-achers out there who have some serious misperception concerning the dynamics and inter-workings of the US and global economy. Every step down reinforces their negativity and they are unable to see any potential outcome other than doom and gloom. But there is a failure to see the whole picture. Since there is an obsession to gravitate to the negative aspects, the positive issues get lost in the haze.
Recession, sure. Tough, double dip recession. It's a distinct possibility. Great depression? I don't see how all the dominoes have aligned themselves to create this eventuality. I would say that I agree with a comment Warren Buffet made recently. To paraphrase, times are tough but there are a lot of things that are "right" here in the US and I wouldn't bet against us our over the long haul. We have the the ability (and more importantly, the will) to do what it takes, over the long haul, to correct the imbalances we now face. |
