Aviron Message Board - Msg: 1892124

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Biotech / Medical : Aviron

AVIR 3.490

+3.4%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Haolin Ni who wrote (95)	8/2/1997 6:32:00 PM
From: Brad C. Dunlap	of 645

Hi Haolin, The day that I happen to make a post and mention an analyst certainly should not be interpreted as the day the analyst came out with their recommendation. As far as numbers on the potential mkt size is admittedly more difficult then normal and I thought I was clear in quoting the average wholesale price of $ 4 to $5 that comes from the Bear Stearn's analyst. My previous estimate of what the market size could be open for criticism and this is an issue that I 'm not sure anyone has a true handle on. The figures from the NIH and Sturza that were earlier quoted is not a bad starting point. YOu may be right in your comments on Robertson Stephens but Rachel Lehaney of H&Q is someone that I have always respected and is tops in the industry. However,the H&Q's of the world have many wrong recommendations especially when they specialize in technology and biotech industries which are more difficult to analyze then other industries. As far as the insider selling that has been reported the many filings that I checked on Friday where not officers or directors of the company but rather 144 filings from a previous private placement that gives the appearance of insider selling when the reality is that they have no relation to the company. I will recheck on Monday to make sure my info is correct. Finally, I do sincerely wish you success even though it is counter to my long position in AVIR. You are not my enemy and I should not be yours rather the objectives of both long and short players is to get as much valid info as possible and by doing so we have created an envirenment for increased future success. If you are relying on your gut feeling from previous experience and it has served you well then who am I or anyone else to say you are wrong. I will however speak my mind on a fact that someone uses in their anlaysis and will counter with documented info and I hope that you would do the same. My frustration with your posts has not been my disagreement in your short position but rather questioning how valid and where your source of info stems from. Maybe this stock will drop into the mid teens and you can be right and profitable on your short position and I can use it as an opportunity to accumulate additional stock. Good luck

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