Are you related to Elaine Garzarelli?
There are so many i told you so's on SI nowadays that i think i'm getting sick. From a technical perspective i agree that the INDU is not yet done correcting, however, the NASDAQ is VERY close. If you looked at a point & figure distribution chart it is starting to look similar to the chart that was prevalent in early 1995. Were you a buyer or seller then? As of last thursday (i update every thursday for sector analysis) the bullish percents for the following sectors were Biomedics Genetics 17.8%, Computers 18.8%, Electronics 23.7% Healthcare 26.5%, Protection & Safety Equip 29.4%, Semiconductors 11.1%, Software 14.9% and telephone 25.8%. There are 7 other sectors that are nearing the oversold level like the ones mentioned above. All of these were as of last Thursday and we all know what has happened since then. A 950 NASDAQ is certainly possible but that would not be much of a move from here. A MAJOR RECKONING in August? Possibly for the NYSE stocks but that major reckoning has already occurred in the NASDAQ, its bullish percent was at 34.2% last thursday and i bet it comes in at 25 - 28% range this week and that would be really oversold. If your August target for the MAJOR RECKONING is meant to coincide with the next fed meeting i think the market has already discounted a 1/2 point bump in the discount rate, anything less we probably get a GREAT rally. My bet is that George Soros, William Gross, Stanley Drukenmiller, Mark Strome and Julian Roberston are correct in that the long bond will be down significanlty from here by December.
blaine |
