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Strategies & Market Trends : Heinz Blasnik- Views You Can Use
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To: GraceZ who wrote (855)5/7/2003 4:32:23 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön  Read Replies (1) of 4905
 
Ask the average person what they think the economy is doing

so according to this logic, if in the early 1930s you asked the average person in the soupline how the economy was doing, and they told you bad, then this would be a contrarian indicator and one should load up on stocks during the early 30s rally which took out the 200 day moving average just like they harp on about on CNBC. so one would, in this "contrarian" scenario, assume that the person in the soup line is wrong whereas the stock hypester is correct, and bet all one's money on stocks, and go bankrupt.

applying a similar logic today, if you talk to people in souplines and believe what they say then you are non-contrarian, whereas if you believe all the conformist money managers who are still hyper-long stocks even after losing SO MUCH OF OTHER PEOPLE'S MONEY THESE PAST THREE YEARS WITHOUT ONCE CHANGING THEIR TUNE in this overvalued market, such that:

* the conformist Barron's Big Money poll recently found an incredibly high bullish percentage among big money managers and
* mutual fund cash levels are at an all time low while
* cap utilization is at a multidecade low and
* the QQV and VXN are at all-time lows and the VIX hasn't been this low since just prior to the June 2002 selloff and
* the market is still overpriced by any valid long-term measure known to man and

so on and so on. do you REALLY THINK IT IS CONTRARIAN TO BE BEARISH? do you even want to try to argue this one? ROFL!
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