The lead one is interesting as it concludes that US options are two: A military strike or interdiction of NK shipments to make sure nuclear material is not being tansferred to other miscreants. How effective can the second option be? One mistake could be deadly. The first option is not so great, either.
There are always at least two parties in every transaction, a seller and a buyer. If we can not prevent the seller from selling, then we can apply pressure upon prospective, or actual, buyers. Anyone caught trying to purchase weapons from NK would find themselves courting extreme economic, and or, military repercussions. Thus, in this manner N. Korea will remain isolated.
Personally speaking, I still believe the Bush administration is taking the proper approach with Kim Jong Il by not submitting to his blackmail. China, as I predicted needed to be involved, is.. And the US is insisting that Japan and S. Korea are involved as well in future substantive negotiations. N. Korea, tentatively, has agreed to this.
Thus, contrary to the course certain democratic leaders and representatives have suggested, such as immediate talks and reengaging in previous "payoff" exercises with NK, we're seeing Kim Jong Il desperately seeking to find some "brink" at which Bush will cave in. But Bush is not Clinton, and temporary bandages on a festering cancer will not solve the problem.
Methinks Kim Jong Il will eventually be forced to recognize that the only way in which his government will obtain economic support is if he stops his belligerent rhetoric and opens up his economic sector to eventual change. Bush simply won't bow to nuclear blackmail
His only alternative scenario is an eventual internal coup developing against him, fostered by all the parties surrounding him who have no desire to see a nuclearized Korean peninsula that drags all of them into conflict.
Hawk |
