Qualcomm, Cisco, Nokia Comparatives
Huey,
<< I wonder if those First Call PEs are based on expected pro forma earnings, at least with respect to QCOM? ... I am not clear whether you are referring to calendar years or fiscal years. >>
Good questions. Especially since we have 3 different fiscal years when looking at those 3 market cap leaders in comm equipment, with only NOK having a fiscal corressponding to the calendar year, and of course Cisco is no in FQ4, and QCOM in FQ3.
The Multex numbers were of course all based on GAAP (Net margin & TTM PE)
I believe I am correct in stating that the First Call numbers are based on Proforma.
- In the case of Qualcomm I showed a First call forward PE (next 12 months) of 24.6x. I didn't show First call's TTM PE but it is stated as 24.1x whereas TTM PE based on GAAP earnings is ~51x.
- The 2003 PE is for the fiscal and is based on pro forma earnings of a consensus EPS mean of $1.40
- The 2004 PE is for the fiscal and is based on pro forma earnings of a consensus EPS mean of $1.46
<< QCOM has earned 42 cents per share GAAP earnings. What are your expectations for GAAP earnings for QCOM the next two quarters? >>
With Qualcomm it has, of course, been anybody's guess <g> but I'm glad to see that the gap between GAAP and proforma has shrunk and they make it a lot easier than they used to to compare GAAP and proforma with the QSI addition.
I haven't really tried to model outside their guidance so I'll have to go with their estimate of $0.23 in the third quarter, including a $0.08 loss from QSI, and $0.84-$0.87 for fiscal 2003 including an estimated annual $0.54 loss from QSI. I am hoping they surprise me positively.
It's a little easier to deal with NOK (except for currency conversion Euro to USD) since GAAP and Pro Forma are generally pretty close. In 2002 NOK IAS Reported Pro forma EPS (diluted) was EUR 0.82, while reported IAS EPS (diluted) was EUR 0.71, and GAAP EPS (diluted) was Euro 0.75 (USD $.79).
BTW: One of the things that I like about the Multex Fundamentals/ProVestor Plus Company Reports that are updated daily and that I obtain from Fidelity is that the complete final page of each 15 page individual company report examines cash flow extensively for the prior 5 quarters.
They break down over 20 line items in these broad categories
* Cash From (Used By) Operations
Net Income
Adjustments
Working Capital
Interest Received
Interest Paid
Other Fin. Inc/Exp
Taxes Paid
-------------------------
Total Cash From Operations
* Plus: Cash From (Used by) Investment Activities
Capital Expenditures
Acq. Group Companies
Invest-Other Shares
Capital Develop. Costs
Disposal Group Cos.
Sale of Other Shares
Other Investing
Dividends Received
-------------------------
Total Cash From Investing
* Plus: Cash From (Used By) Financing Activities
Issuance Shares Capital
Treasury Shares Acq.
Minority Shareholder
LT Liabilities, Net
LT Borrowings
Pay LT Debt
ST Borrowings, Net
Dividends (Paid)
-------------------------
Total Cash From Financing
* Foreign Exch Effects
* Equals: Increase (Decrease) In Cash
Net Change In Cash
Free Cash Flow
Cash From Operations
Best,
- Eric - |
