Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)

QCOM 163.32

+2.3%

Nov 21 9:30 AM EST

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To: limtex who wrote (128773)	5/8/2003 9:32:22 AM
From: Dexter Lives On	Read Replies (1) of 152472

If that happens, and it's a BIG if, there are still problems: 1) the issue of valuation metrics getting skewed as P/S ratio deteriorates rather dramatically; 2) the transition could be painful as there would be enormous costs to turning off the production capacity; 3) if td-scdma becomes a large part of the 3g equation, then that will generate a royalty rate of 0%, which will bring down the average -G/-NG ; 4) it kills off peripheral businesses like 'brew'; 5) ASP's will go into a deflationary spiral; and 6) Competition will improve quality of handsets, which will collapse future replacement rates. More likely scenario is that cdma share stays at 20%, ASP's and replacement rates collapse and qcom chipset share drops to 30-40%. JMHO. Rob

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