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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group
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To: Hawkmoon who wrote (97590)5/8/2003 10:25:08 AM
From: carranza2  Read Replies (1) of 281500
 
The only ones who would dare risk buying an untested nuclear weapon from N. Korea (and thereby risking their entire existence on that device) are those regimes which have nothing to lose economically or politically. And fortunately, there are few such regimes currently in place that I can see at this time.

I'm more concerned about sales to terrorist organizations like AQ that cannot be subject to the kinds of sanctions you suggest. I don't think they would care too much if the device were untested. Moreover, financing a purchase is presumably not a huge problem for AQ.

The "tripwire" defense is more of a psychological threshold than anything else. I doubt that our 35,000 troops can do much against a concerted attack. Nevertheless, it would certainly take some soul-searching on the part of NK before embarking on a course of action that kills US troops because Jong's demise would be a certainty once the tripwire is tripped.

The NK will therefore continue on a course of bluster and meaningless negotiation. Their purpose will be to get a nice arsenal of nukes before they do anything terribly aggressive.

The same reasoning Pollack used for justifying the attack on Iraq applies here in spades. However, the costs of doing so are daunting.

We'll see. This is a far tougher nut to crack than Iraq was.
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