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Technology Stocks : XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. (XMSR)

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To: i-node who wrote (629)5/8/2003 12:21:32 PM
From: pcstel  Read Replies (1) of 3386
 
Well, as promised, you got the equiv. of a spot secondary.. Although cloaked under a very interesting concept named a (Direct Stock Purchase Plan). In other words. It allows them to sell new shares into the martketplace without the formality of a Secondary Offering. I like the concept.. Buy your shares directly from us, and save the brokerage fee.. but, uhhh!! It will dilute your current shares! I like it.

Well, so there is now about 20% more shares outstanding after that one! But, they did get rid of some of the debt.. So I think that was a good move.

It's always the same story with these Popcicle Stand Merchants.. The never have "enough cash".

Interesting sidenote on what management calls "CPGA". As I noted before.. It really doesn't matter how management "powder coats them with sugar". The raw numbers are still where you look.




----------- 2003----------2002
-------------------------- -----------
For the
three
months
ended:
March 31,
2003
Marketing:
Subsidies & distribution 11,722 9,561
Advertising & marketing 11,349 33,127
Marketing 27,985 45,585
Net Subscriber Additions 135,916 48,509



But the decreases in SAC (subsidies looks promising)

So XM has this large expense called Marketing (which totaled 27.985 million) which I refer to as.. Mystery Marketing. These Mystery marketing expenses are not assigned to the CPGA calculations. However, in reality.. They are still Cash out the door.

So XM mangement can massage the ratio of percentages they want to assign these overall marketing expenses to make their reported CPGA to be whatever number they want.

For instance, in the previous year. The line item "Advertising and Marketing" was 33,127 million and Mystery Marketing was 45,585 milion or the amount assigned to CPGA was 42%.

Now the line item "Advertising and Marketing" is 11,349 million and Mystery Marketing was 27,985 milion or only 28% of overall Marketing expenses are being assigned to CPGA.

In the end.. Marketing expenses are marketing expenses and are a component of CPGA..

After all, given the Advertising and Marketing" figure of 11.349 million for the 90 days of this quarter. That totals only 126,000 dollars a day. Or only $2,627 dollars per contiguous US state per day.

So you can either take the CPGA figure that management provides and discount the 27 million in "mystery marketing".. Yeah! I know, know.. It's Brand Building!.. Or arrive at your own figure.. It still comes out of bank either way.

There is now 3X the number of shares outstanding as there was back in the "bubble days", 2000. That would put XMSR share price at about $30 in late 2000 terms.

But, as predicted.. The headlines continue on.. Revenues rise, loss widens!

biz.yahoo.com

Now where have I seen this one before??

Still looking for those 70% Gross Margins! I am sure they are in there somewhere??

And so it goes,
PCSTEL
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