Hello kblaine,
I'm not related to Elaine but I did move 100% into cash 3 weeks ago.
The point is that the chart of XICO tells an absolutely lucid story and when, some time back, you wrote, "but with XICO it's different..." I figured the writing was on the wall. A double top, broken neckline, 45% retracement: this is a 90% giveaway.
I have nothing against XICO as a company. But I do think its chart and others like it encapsulates a whole universe of perceived fundamentals (NOT fundamentals per se) - and in some cases (but not all) charts are all you need.
Thanks for the sector survey. It is interesting and so is the bullish bear ratio. Personally I still see a few momentum players popping up here and there (or maybe mutual funds pumping iron to distribute). I find that mind-boggling, but they haven't given up yet (cf CSCC and PSFT today, SYSF on day of split).
So let me retract the "NSDQ 950" note. Let's say that the charts of INTC, CSCO and MSFT look mightly like heading to 63, 44 and 103 respectively and maybe lower. I'm not sure what that would give on the COMP. (about 5% down from here). But the charts are pretty compelling.
And with some small cap high flyers the fall is another 30% at least. (PSFT, SYSF, CSCC, SHVA, ASND, QCOM, ASTF, USLD etc etc)
I don't think what the Fed does matters at all for what happens next. The downdraft has its own momentum - just as the updraft did. (XICO up 250% in 2 months).
Do you think we are really going to take off right after whatever the bottom will be?
As for the long bond (sorry I don't want to make you angry, just have a good exchange): my guess is that we will be in a good little recession by Q1 97 - and of course the bond will come down, way down.
Best wishes,
dppl |
