THE NOTE
Perspiration, Not Tears - A Musky Karl Rove Is All Smiles In New Hampshire
By Mark Halperin, Marc Ambinder, David Chalian & Brooke Brower.
W A S H I N G T O N May 8?? In New Hampshire yesterday, Karl Rove did not rule out running as a candidate himself against President Bush for the Republican presidential nomination in 2004.
Granted, no one asked Rove to rule out a nomination challenge, but facts are facts: Karl did not take it off the table.
And if he IS running, yesterday's trip (complete with boffo WMUR coverage, state and national clips off which he could raise some serious money, and an entourage that included not one ? but two ? Raths) was a very solid start.
Assuming he chooses, in the end, not to run, Rove's boss and friend, the 43rd president of the United States, George W. Bush, is unlikely to have a primary challenge in the Granite State, where the Bush family had some unhappy moments in 1992 and 2000 (not to mention 1980).
The reality is that without raising any money, forming a re-elect committee, or even admitting they are trying, Rove and Co. have already systematically removed many of the hazards that sitting presidents sometimes face in seeking re-election.
Although Rove said in New Hampshire that four out of five presidential nomination battles strengthen the eventual nominee, he surely was referring to open seat fights.
When you are working for an incumbent (Reagan in '84, Clinton in '96) keeping the field clear allows you to use your trips to the states early on the calendar to whip up good will and attention, and play to the middle, with no pressure or fear of actually losing ? or even getting embarrassed. (Believe us: Karl has already checked the Reagan and Clinton vote percentages against minor candidates in their New Hampshire re-elects.)
With the POTUS looking strong, some of the smarter minds in Democratic politics are focused on three presidential projects:
a. figuring out how to produce a nominee who can fight for some of that middle back from the White House, and maybe even out-flank the president on the right (as Bill Clinton did to 41 in '92, and, mirror-image style, 43 did to Al Gore in '00).
b. figuring out how to minimize the national security trump card the White House currently holds
c. figuring out how to get attention paid to their candidates, in order to build enthusiasm and momentum
As to getting to the center (or, even, the right), The Note has learned that the Democratic Leadership Council, the historic architect of this very task, is convening a private session with 50 or so elected officials this coming Wednesday in DC.
The meetings will take place at the Mayflower Hotel (giving a certain television network a decided coverage advantage), and will be closed press.
Among those expected to attend are Senator Bayh, Bill Richardson, and a fella goes by the name "Bill Clinton."
The group also plans a briefing on Thursday in DC with Al From, Bruce Reed, Mark Warner, Kwame Kilpatrick, and Jennifer Mann, who is a Pennsylvania state legislator.
We wonder if the presidential campaigns will pay close attention, or, even send reps.
As for taking on the president and his party on the war, the Democrats sure have whipped up a media frenzy about the Lincoln photo-op.
Now the question are ? is the party glad?
And does the first problem the Democrats have (getting to the center) relate to the second (of the war)? Which is to say, does the national security issue loom so big that Democrats will NEVER get back to the center enough to win?
Mike Allen's Washington Post story about the Lincoln controversy starts with a questionable opening paragraph, but ends with this solid gold stuff:
"A senior White House official said Democrats were making a mistake by trying to draw more attention to an image that Bush's aides see as emblematic of his strength on national security. 'This is not an issue that Democrats want to keep alive,' the official said. 'We're happy to argue with them about defense ? any day.'" LINK
"A Republican leadership aide on Capitol Hill said the questions being raised by Democrats were 'uncomfortable,' but noted that the discussion 'at least means they're not talking about Medicare or the economy.'"
"Several senior Democrats agreed that the dispute is a loser for them. 'It was live on CNN for four hours,' a Senate Democratic strategist said. 'You can't pay enough for that. Who cares about a few stories later?'"
"One Democrat moaned yesterday as he watched cable news programs replay hours of footage of Bush on the carrier, with audio about Democratic complaints. 'I'm watching him get high-fived and buzz the tower again,' the Democrat said. 'The White House should have thought of this controversy themselves.'"
Democrats' questions about Bush's jet landing made the front page of USA Today , complete with the Fly Boy photo that will have Mike Deaver, Sig Rogich, and Dan Bartlett all smiling. LINK
Along these lines, a senior Administration official told The Note: "The more time he wastes talking about defense, the more time he hurts the Democrats and reinforces the public's positive perceptions of the president."
"'Do it again do it again do it again,' is our message to Senator Byrd."
The Democrats are "doing things that make their base happy, but alienate the center."
As for getting their candidates and eventual presidential nominee attention in key early states and nationally, Democratic operatives should study Rove's trip yesterday and figure out how he garnered so much coverage.
Which, of course, some of them did, as operatives from at least two presidential campaigns were spotted checking things out throughout the day.
Dan Balz of the Washington Post (on the front page!) leads thusly: "He is a magazine cover boy, the subject of two recent books and has earned a reputation as one of the most powerful and controversial advisers in this or any White House, and so when Karl Rove came to New Hampshire today, he did not come quietly." LINK
"His schedule had all the trappings of a candidate rather than a mere political strategist ? two public speeches, several media interviews, a private meeting with Republican contributors, a pep rally with party activists and a quiet session with the publisher of the conservative Manchester Union Leader ? "
"Seven television cameras recorded his appearance at St. Anselm College, and the overflow audience he attracted exceeded those drawn by two of the Democratic presidential candidates ? Rep. Richard A. Gephardt (Mo.) and Senator John Edwards (N.C.) ? when they campaigned at the college recently. ? Rove's advance-guard tour of the state with the nation's first primary was further evidence that the White House is determined not to cede any part of the political playing field to the Democrats."
The New York Times ' Adam Nagourney starts out similarly: "He stepped out of his car this morning to the flash of cameras and a scrum of television crews. Inside the Bedford Village Inn, 300 New Hampshire business and political leaders had waited nearly an hour to hear his thoughts at the forum known as 'Politics and Eggs.'" LINK
"From there, it was on to the New Hampshire Institute of Politics, where so many people showed up that the school had to station guards outside to direct traffic to scarce parking spaces."
"This was not Howard Dean, John Kerry or any of the other Democrats running for president. It was someone who is not a candidate for anything but who, it would seem, has become far more of a celebrity draw on the political circuit: Karl Rove."
"Mr. Rove, the normally reclusive senior political adviser to President Bush, stumped across southern New Hampshire today with all the energy of, well, a candidate for president, or at least someone who knows one. He mixed political observations, historical references and self-deprecating jokes, along with a few hints at the re-election arguments his boss might make come next year."
"And by design or not, Mr. Rove's visit served to miniaturize the stature of the nine Democrats who are struggling to do what Mr. Bush was doing in this state just three years ago."
The Boston Globe 's Anne E. Kornblut opens with this: "Returning to the site of his most embarrassing political defeat, senior White House counselor Karl Rove questioned the primacy of the New Hampshire primary process yesterday." (Yes, that was "his." HIS. Not: "President's Bush's most embarrassing political defeat". His.) LINK
Kornblut has Rove putting the polemic New Hampshire primary on Notice at his New Hampshire Institute of Politics speech, warning that, while the system will stay intact through 2008, "'New Hampshire is going to have to sort of explain why this is important for the country at some point."' Kornblut also quotes him saying: 'I'm not certain how good a predictor it is', what with Bush losing the primary by 19 points.
Kornblut explains:
"Bush is unlikely to face any serious Republican competition, but Rove promised that Bush will campaign in the New Hampshire primary, a promise intended to ward off the possibility of disgruntled conservatives seeking to mount a challenge in the state and to give Bush a jump-start on campaigning for the state's three electoral votes."
As Rove promised:
"'Fifteen-hundred bucks and the desire to shake a few hands will get anyone on a ballot up here. But hopefully, we'll be able to avoid a serious campaign against the president. But we'll be here, and we'll campaign, because we respect the process. This is a state, before they vote for you, they want to have the chance to meet you once or twice or three times or four times."'
The Boston Herald's Elizabeth W. Crowley has Rove anticipating a close race due to the country's partisan divide. LINK
Crowley also has Rove downplaying his own influence on the presidential race:
"Rove told students that, in the end, the best strategists in the world can't get a loser candidate elected."
"'I don't subscribe to the theory of the masses are asses, that if you run right with snappy commercials and good sound bites, you are able to confuse people,' Rove said."
That sure sounded snappy to us.
The Union Leader's DiStaso has lots of the best lines, analysis, and jokes from the visit. LINK and LINK
The Chicago Tribune's Jeff Zeleny has much must-read fodder in his report on the visit , including Rove's promise that "the 2004 campaign would not be taken lightly." LINK
"Rove spent the day in a rare public appearance to talk about a re-election effort the White House maintains does not yet exist. The political history of this state, which holds the nation's first primary, offers at least two reasons for the Bush team to be wary."
What are the two reasons? Read friends, read. You'll thank us.
We'll end with James Pindell's account, which includes an exclusive interview with Rove. LINK
"Rove wouldn't offer much insight as to how he sees the Democratic nomination shaping up. When asked if there was some small part of him that would have enjoyed a rematch with Al Gore, he said 'maybe' before saying, 'You shouldn't want a rematch with Gore or you shouldn't want a specific Democrat because you have no control over it. And if the mind set is 'we want to face so-and-so' or 'we want this or we want that' you start focusing on that instead of what you need to do. If you are going to win you have got to be prepared to take on anybody and to define the race in such a way that you've started no matter which way the other side chooses.'"
ABC 2004: CREEP:
Pushing off of Tuesday's Cheney remarks, the Washington Post 's Mike Allen plays political reporter: "Republican sources said that sometime after Memorial Day, Bush is likely to name Marc Racicot, chairman of the Republican National Committee, as his campaign chairman. Mercer Reynolds, who left his post as Bush's ambassador to Switzerland and Liechtenstein at the end of March, is to be the finance chairman, the sources said ? ." LINK
"White House press secretary Ari Fleischer at first told reporters yesterday that he would try to determine when Bush and Cheney talked about the ticket, 'for the sake of formality.'"
"Fleischer later said Cheney was simply reiterating Bush's statement at a Nov. 7 news conference that, should he decide to run, Cheney would be his ticket-mate ? "
Note Note: so we guess those political phones and faxes haven't gone into 1600 yet ? .
"The reelection blueprint had called for the formation of a campaign committee as early as March. Officials put that off until after the war, and said they have since realized that there are many advantages to continuing to wait, since it keeps Bush above the fray of the Democratic nomination fight."
"The campaign is to have its headquarters in Northern Virginia, sources said. Formal campaign events may not begin until fall, but GOP officials hope to begin raising funds sooner."
The New York Times ' Dick Stevenson adds: "Republican strategists said Mr. Cheney would take on an increasingly political role this year before Mr. Bush plunges back into overt campaigning next year. Mr. Cheney, they said, would hit the fund-raising trail for the ticket as soon as this summer, though more likely in the fall, once Mr. Bush formally establishes a re-election committee to receive contributions."
"'I would expect the vice president to have a very aggressive political schedule this year that would center on fund-raising events for the presidential committee,' said a Republican strategist with close ties to the White House."
"'He will take up a lot of the money-raising-event-attendance slack for the president this year because the president is busy being president,' the strategist said. 'The people who give you money are part of your political base, and Cheney is wildly popular with the base.'"
The New York Daily News' Tom DeFrank picks up the Dallas Morning News "scoop": "Vice President Cheney confirmed the worst-kept secret in Washington yesterday ? he'll be on the ticket again with President Bush in 2004." LINK
DeFrank Notes the issues of Cheney's health and 24-hour doctor; his indispensability to the president; and the threat a different running mate might pose to a 2008 bid by Jeb Bush.
The New York Post 's Deborah Orin advises Pataki and Giuliani to stop holding their breath. LINK
Separately, Orin states that not only did last week's South Carolina debate not have Republican's shaking in their boots, but instead, "some Republicans are dreaming and plotting how President Bush can do what even Ronald Reagan couldn't do: win all 50 states in 2004." LINK
Orin thus has GOP sources hinting at fierce jockeying for roles at the Republican convention, with Pataki and Bloomberg struggling for control of the event; She concludes with "Bloomberg aide Kevin Sheekey insist[ing]: 'We haven't had any problems.'"
Insider highlights of Rove's trip:
a. The Note counted at least 3 Rove jokes made at the expense of Joel Maiola, who looked "fabulous" in his suit.
b. The New Hampshire Democratic Party had some energetic protesters at the St. A event, causing Maiola to tell Pam "Still One of the Most Influential" Walsh, "Nice work out there," only it wasn't clear how to read his tone.
c. The St. A students asked outstanding questions.
d. Kornblut notwithstanding, Rove was a vocal defender of the primary's first-in-the-nation status, and he spoke admiringly and knowingly about it on the merits, saying that front-loading isn't good for the system, even if it might be good in a particular cycle for a particular candidate
e. Rove took Terry McAuliffe on on the record about the convention date flap
f. Thanks to the good folks at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics LINK for being their usual incredibly nice and accommodating selves to the vagabond national press corps. We haven't had a filing center that wonderful since Columbia.
The Chicago Sun-Times' Lynn Sweet reports that Karl Rove "was mapping strategy for the Illinois Bush re-election campaign at a dinner last Thursday night in a private dining room at the Chicago Club." LINK
"Rove was touching bases to determine, among other things, what it will take to make Bush competitive for 2004 in heavily Democratic Illinois, and which people would be needed to pull together the state re-election drive."
Sweet also has some info on upcoming Chicago visits by Senators Frist and Allen, as well as news on the planned June 22 presidential candidates forum hosted by Jesse Jackson's Rainbow/PUSH Coalition.
The Wall Street Journal ed board defends the Lincoln photo op.
The State's Nicole Sweeney reports that some Gamecocks are planning to protest the president's commencement appearance in Columbia on Friday. LINK
"The protesting graduates plan to don their caps and gowns for a sidewalk ceremony outside the Koger Center for the Arts. Instead of diplomas, they'll accept copies of the U.S. Constitution."
The Note is confident that USC's Chip McKinney will ensure both free speech and a smooth graduation weekend. Here is more logistical information for graduation weekend goers: LINK
And here, The State provides some memories of Bush commencements past: LINK
The New York Times ' Eric Lichtbalu notes that President Bush disagrees with the NRA about extending the assault weapons ban. LINK
The NRA will focus its resources trying to defeat the extension in Congress, helping their guy in the White House avoid the uncomfortable decision of having to either break his campaign promise to please his gun base or alienate, yes, "moderates."
So basically, it's entirely possible that Bush will never have to sign an assault weapons ban. The NRA often gets what it wants with Republicans controlling both chambers of Congress. (Another possibility: allowing Senate Democrats to "strengthen" the bill to the extent that it goes far beyond the 1994 legislation, allowing the White House to claim that the bill is substantially different from the one Bush said he would sign).
The New Republic's Jonathan Chait sounds more Carvillian than Begalian in warning that liberals shouldn't be blinded by hatred of President Bush and lose the ability to think clearly. LINK
ABC 2004: The Invisible Primary:
It's kind of cute that the generic Des Moines Register web site headline space-filler is "Heddy Herey," but it almost made us miss Thomas Beamont's column about Governor Dean's targeting Senator Kerry, Kerry's New Hampshire schedule, and an ode to Jeff Zeleny. LINK
In this week's issue, the New Republic's Ryan Lizza stitches together his notebook observations from South Carolina, wondering why Senator Edwards seemed "distant," accurately describing the wondrous scenes at Seawell's restaurant and the Clyburn Fish Fry, and finishing with thumbnail sketches of where the major candidates think they are.
The Washington Post 's Lloyd Grove quotes always-gracious Bob Shrum's good natured response to Senator Fritz Hollings' insult at the South Carolina debate (to Kerry: "'John, do you want to win or do you want to lose?'"). LINK
Shrum: "'I've known Hollings since I met him at the 1960 Democratic convention when I was 16 years old, and whenever I see him he usually teases me. I love the guy.'"
In keeping with the theme of insults, Lloyd also has Norman Ornstein describing Terry McAuliffe and Roll Call 's RNC chair contender Ed Gillespie as academically weak but socially popular with students.
GRAHAM
We kind of joked about it yesterday, but it appears more and more possible that Katie Couric's research team really did believe that Mark Leibovich's parody of Graham's diary was real. LINK
"Today show spokesman Lauren Kapp declined to discuss whether Couric had misunderstood the Post story, saying only: 'Katie followed up on a story in the Washington Post regarding the senator's daily log. The senator answered the question.'"
"The Graham campaign was miffed that Couric hadn't gotten the joke."
"Campaign spokesman Jamal Simmons said the Post 'wrote a parody, as is their right. You would hope the research staff (of the Today show) and any journalist that would refer to it would refer to it as a parody.'"
"Simmons said Graham 'was happy to go on the Today show and will again. We just hope in the future they make jokes a little clearer to their viewers.'"
EDWARDS
The Laurinburg Exchange reports that Senator Edwards will be the commencement speaker this Saturday at the University of North Carolina at Pembroke. LINK
While we still try to figure out where The Hill staff stayed when they were pulling all those West Coast records, the Edwards campaign's Jennifer Palmieri tells The Note this, regarding the paper's Wednesday story about the Senator's fundraising success among the support staff of law firms and their spouses:
"For those of you who may have found yesterday's Hill story the least bit interesting, you may also be interested to learn that the story had a number of factual errors that make the story far less interesting."
"Note readers are busy folks, so I won't bore you with all the details but here are the highlights. Mr. Dealey (the reporter) had the wrong spouse for Elaine Reeves; said the Reeves had never donated to a candidate before their donation to Edwards while FEC records show they have made 4 multi-hundred donations to Florida candidates; wrote that the Kerns have no property while they in fact own a home valued at $329,000; reported that Mrs. Kerns once filed for bankruptcy but failed to point out that she now owns her own multimillion dollar business. Oh, and he miscalculated the value of the Reeves home, but I don't want to be picky. So that's the real story. Fair and balanced. You be the judge."
Move over John Kerry and Howard Dean. Make some room in the ring for Gephardt v. Edwards.
Eric Dyer, writing for the Greensboro News & Record, uses Senator Edwards' attack of Representative Gephardt's health care plan in Saturday's debate as emblematic of a larger battle for middle class voters. < LINK
"As the accelerated presidential race presses forward, Edwards almost certainly is not through trying to undercut Gephardt's credentials as a fighter for regular folks."
"With nine Democrats vying for the chance to challenge President Bush, each is having a difficult time breaking away from the pack to become the front-runner."
"The candidates' messages sometimes overlap. Gephardt and Edwards have honed populist platforms and seem to be courting many of the same primary supporters."
"'Edwards talks about his career as a trial lawyer representing powerless victims against massive corporate interests and claims he would stand up for 'regular people' if sent to the White House. Gephardt pledges to champion 'working families.'"
"The foes even highlight their humble roots as a sign that they can connect with middle America. Edwards mentions his parents' occupations as a mill worker and postal employee in the Piedmont, while Gephardt talks about his father delivering milk in St. Louis."
"'They're both going after the moderate voters, the working-class voters,' said Stuart Rothenberg, a Washington-based political analyst. 'It's the milkman versus the mill worker.'"
Roger Simon ties his line to what he sees as the only real news hook to cast in Jim Clyburn's Fish Fry (besides Gephardt trying the electric slide). LINK
"[The] first Bonehead Move of the Campaign Thus Far Award goes to John Edwards for refusing to take the stage with the other candidates at U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn's fish fry in Columbia."
"'It was one of those all-too-rare, feel-good evenings in politics. The other presidential candidates in attendance worked the crowd and then took the stage with Clyburn to say a few words to the voters. But Edwards ? - the only candidate who HAS to win South Carolina ? - ducked out. And Clyburn was left to call plaintively from the stage: 'Senator John Edwards? Senator John Edwards? We need you here. We need you here.'"
"An Edwards' spokesperson said the next day that it 'diminishes' Edwards to be on the same stage with the other candidates."
Simon also has a handful of other fun first-hand tidbits from the weekend in Columbia, including Howard Dean's packing methods and the suggestion that genial Bob Graham might be the Bruce Banner of this campaign.
END OF PART ONE |
