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Non-Tech : Claire's Stores (CLE) NYSE
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To: jason D. who wrote (379)8/2/1997 11:40:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit   of 619
 
Jason, before you quit college it would have helped you to have taken a course in logic. The word "specious" means an argument that is attractive on the surface but without merit. You tell me that my argument is specious because it is persuasive, and then proceed to attack those who have studied the problem in exhaustive detail. You also imply that to demonstrate TA you have to believe in it, and try to bolster your argument with some pschobabble about empathy.

Your arguments are abject nonsense. If anything, TA is specious because it promises things for which there is no objective reason to believe it can deliver. Now you tell me that the reason for skepticism is lack of empathy??? Try lack of evidence.

You remind me of Oscar Levant who years ago wrote that you cannot be too careful. He said he believed in not only knocking on wood, but also water pipes and anything else that was handy including Melmac. Tell me Jason, do you think I'm wrong to not believe in the Tooth Fairy or Santa Clause. Do you think that this is evidence of a lack of empathy? Undoubtedly you would think that fact that so many children believe in fantasy is evidence that it exists. (This kind of argument is called argumentum ad adsurdum -- a logically consistent method of demonstrating a logical fallacy in a sylogism by extending it to absurd extremes).

To return to the point, if TA isn't a mathematical massaging of price/volume data, what is it? Does the successful TA practioner also require training in spoon bending from Uri Geller?

Seriously, I suggest you read Malkiel's "A Random Walk Down Wall Street". This book synposizes academic thoughts concerning the market. It is highly readable and very informative.

I suspect this discussion is probably pointless. I will change my mind about TA only when I see objective evidence in favor of it (no doubt evidence of lack of empathy). You will continue to be a proponent of it regardless of the mountain of evidence to the contrary.

Paul
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