Isopatch re the COTS
Just about fell out my chair when I saw those GOLD commercial numbers....then I remembered I had expected something like the numbers realized. Certainly they've been piling 'em on the last three days of this week, too.
At 70K net short I'd say they have a ways to go, and they have yet to stop Gold's roll. But if one takes the chart below and adds probably another 15K shorts, well then, as you say we're getting to that point.....
(Public is 3:1 long....they were 5::1 long at the top around this time last year.)
sharelynx.net
In Silver the net short position is 44K for the commercials....It took them 70K to stop it last time...Expect they are well into the net 50Ks short as of Friday, holding off the run at $4.80.
All in all to familiar a replay of last year. Suspect at some point there will be a mass move for the exits. The sluggishness of the HUI suggests to me the public isn't going to be dragged in this time....having been burnt. Hardly can blame them. Looking at the earnings of the HUI stocks, I'm hardly impressed....Frankly, I'll be surprised if much past 138 is seen before GOLD comes in for a correction with a dollar bounce.
RANGY and GOLD, the stock, are the only good earnings and value stories I find. Everything else is a bet on the come, one way or the other, or a bet things won't get worse as far as currency, politics, and labor, in the case of GFI and HMY. |
