| My investment are in AMAT, ASML, KLAC, NVLS, ALTR, XLNX, LLTC, MXIM. The first four provide the technology to accomplish the shrinks, so they are not helpful to answer your question. The last two are linear(analog)/mixed signal companies and they do not use the most leading edge shrinks, so they are also not helpful. The remaining two, ALTR and XLNX, have been at the leading edge of both shrinks and wafer size. These are PLD companies and they compete with ASIC companies. They have reduced the price/performance of their chips by continuing to develop leading edge and they believe that they are very rapidly increasing the size of the market in which they can compete favorably with ASIC. PLD provides time to market and flexibility advantages compared to ASIC, but price and speed have been a disadvantage. As leading edge shrinks improve price and speed, PLD gains sockets and customers gain the advantages without the disadvantages. ALTR and XLNX have thousands of customers across many industries and many geographic areas. I can restate XLNX CEO's statement that a 1M gate FPGA that cost $2000 in 1998 will cost $20 when the 90 nanometer process goes into production later this year or next year. I believe that routers and swiches use FPGAs. There is a liquidity crisis in the network service provider industry. One way to bring broadband to the masses under these circumstances is to provide much more capability at much lower prices. I believe that the applications that will add a "virtual" dimension to our real world when full motion audio/video become as pervasive as voice on both wireless and wireline will be compelling. |
