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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 306.14

+0.4%

Dec 24 4:00 PM EST

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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (9750)	5/9/2003 10:09:25 PM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (2) of 95632

Cary, Thanks for the explanation and your assessment of the industry and applications. Most recently I was working for a now defunct company that made process equipment that was used to manufacture optical filters used for fiber optic applications in telecommunications optimized for 1550nM wavelengths and other optical frequency specialty applications. Due to the technology bubble in the telecom industry there is a huge surplus of available optical data transfer capacity and devices, there is no near term need for expensive advanced technology. The infrastructure that is currently available has plenty of capacity until at least 2005-6 and is very inexpensive relative to the cost of more advanced technolgies. It is cheaper to use currently available optical technology than to build newer and faster technology. It is for this reason that so many leading edge fiber optic technology companies have closed their doors. There was no market for an improved product with more capacity except for R&D applications. I see parallels to the semi-chip industry, how fast is fast enough and how small is small enough? Just my observations. BB

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