RE: "I see parallels to the semi-chip industry, how fast is fast enough and how small is small enough?"
I am sure that there are many parallels. The difference is that the semi IC is a fundamental building block with potential applications in every aspect of human culture. Price, size, speed, and power consumption are all moving in the right direction. As they move along their paths, they combine to make new applications feasible.
The most common view of semi IC technology relates it to the PC. The PC has moved from a character oriented system to a graphic oriented system. For many traditional PC applications, the current capability is sufficient. In fact, I have seen many comments that the PC is no longer a growth product. I will accept the end of the PC era, but I want to herald the advent of the PN (personal node) era. What is a PN? It is an appliance that wirelessly connects an individual to the universal network of every element in our man made enviroment. We have seen "combined" products. A wireless phone that is a camera or a music player. A PC that is a phone. There has been an idea that combinations must be phyically intergrated. In some cases physical integration will make sense, but in many cases wireless "integration" will be much better. When every man made device has a powerful processor and a powerful wireless bandwidth, the "combinations" are exponential. We will see much better voice recognition in future PNs. We will see much more "artificial intelligence" in fure PNs and in the network. All will depend on price, size, speed, and power consumption. We can only imagine the synergy generated by pervasive, multi person, real time, full audio video wireless conferencing.
Contrary to the doom and gloom you hear from many "technology" analysts, I believe that we are entering a semi IC golden age. I like to compare Moore's Law to the bar game where you offer $30 if someone agrees to give you one cent the first day of the month, two the second, four the third, and double the previous day, each day until the end of the month. The real big return comes at the end of the month. Moore's Law has been doubling since the 60s and we are at the "end of the month." Each double from here on is very powerful and it comes in a world economy where the costs of almost everything else keeps rising. |
